WPG beat CHI 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.12 expected goals to 2.39. WPG outshot CHI 35 to 26. M. Scheifele led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Scheifele had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. C. Hellebuyck stopped 25 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| WPG | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 16:52CHIR. Donato0.04 xG
- 3rd 18:56WPGM. Scheifele0.27 xG
- OT 0:38WPGM. Scheifele0.14 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 2.39 xGWPG 3.12 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 11:43 | 0:33 |
| R. Donato | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:00 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 1:27 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:17 | 1:14 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:27 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 1:27 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:53 | 0:33 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:33 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:42 | 0:00 |
| A. Athanasiou | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:10 | 1:27 |
| A. Martinez | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:16 | 0:33 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:03 | 0:46 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:18 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 17:57 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 35 | 33 | 2 | .943 | 60:38 | OT loss |
| P. Mrazek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
WPG Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Scheifele | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:33 | 2:14 |
| K. Connor | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:18 | 2:16 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:38 | 2:10 |
| G. Vilardi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:29 | 2:14 |
| A. Lowry | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| N. Niederreiter | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 1:46 |
| V. Namestnikov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:46 |
| C. Perfetti | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:24 | 1:44 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:02 | 0:00 |
| A. Iafallo | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:46 | 1:49 |
| M. Barron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:18 | 0:00 |
| R. Kupari | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Morrissey | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 26:17 | 2:37 |
| D. Samberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:29 | 0:01 |
| N. Pionk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:07 | 1:23 |
| D. DeMelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:31 | 0:00 |
| C. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:14 | 0:00 |
| H. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hellebuyck | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 60:04 | Win |
| E. Comrie | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.3, WPG 3.6 | CHI 1, WPG 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 26.5, WPG 32.6 | CHI 26, WPG 35 |
| Win chance | WPG 70% | WPG won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG K. Connor | 3.8 | 3 | 1.08 | 1 | 41% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 3.2 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WPG N. Ehlers | 3.1 | 3 | 0.84 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| WPG G. Vilardi | 2.6 | 3 | 0.82 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| WPG M. Scheifele | 2.5 | 6 | 1.09 | 2 | 38% | 2 |
| CHI T. Hall | 2.5 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 2.5 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| WPG J. Morrissey | 2.4 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| WPG N. Niederreiter | 2.3 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 2.1 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| WPG C. Perfetti | 2.0 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.9 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.8 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CHI A. Athanasiou | 1.8 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG M. Appleton | 1.7 | 5 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.7 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.7 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG N. Pionk | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG A. Lowry | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG C. Miller | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| WPG M. Barron | 1.3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| WPG A. Iafallo | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| WPG H. Fleury | 1.3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| WPG V. Namestnikov | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI A. Martinez | 1.2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI J. Anderson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| WPG D. DeMelo | 1.1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG D. Samberg | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| WPG R. Kupari | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.