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Game Recap
CHI3
FinalThu, Oct 30, 2025Every game that night
WPG6

WPG beat CHI 6-3, with the chances close: 2.90 expected goals to 3.08. WPG outshot CHI 32 to 24. G. Vilardi led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). J. Toews had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. C. Hellebuyck stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CHI1023
WPG2226
  1. 1st 1:42WPGV. NamestnikovPP0.18 xG
  2. 1st 8:57CHIT. Teravainen0.25 xG
  3. 1st 16:56WPGG. Vilardi0.20 xG
  4. 2nd 1:54WPGM. Scheifele0.05 xG
  5. 2nd 11:19WPGG. Vilardi0.19 xG
  6. 3rd 10:12WPGJ. Morrissey0.02 xG
  7. 3rd 13:02CHIA. Vlasic0.45 xG
  8. 3rd 15:03CHIA. Burakovsky0.12 xG
  9. 3rd 17:19WPGK. Connor0.06 xG

Team Stats

CHIWPG
24Shots on goal32
3.08Expected goals2.90
56Shot attempts54
205v5 shots on goal23
0/3Power play1/3
16Hits18
7Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes4
20Giveaways13
4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 3.08 xGWPG 2.90 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdWPG goal, 1:42CHI goal, 8:57WPG goal, 16:56WPG goal, 1:54WPG goal, 11:19WPG goal, 10:12CHI goal, 13:02CHI goal, 15:03WPG goal, 17:19

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI24 on goal, 3 scored
WPG32 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. BedardC022300+1021:263:59
A. BurakovskyLW101101+1019:543:58
T. TeravainenC101301-1018:182:01
F. NazarC000511-1021:244:09
R. GreeneC000200+2019:241:51
T. BertuzziLW000010-1018:163:59
C. DachC000140-2415:290:00
N. FolignoLW000040-1015:072:00
R. DonatoC000001-2014:472:00
L. SlaggertLW000011-1010:480:00
J. DickinsonC000100-208:080:00
C. MurphyD022220+1211:450:00
A. VlasicD101110-2019:290:02
A. LevshunovD011101+1015:362:07
W. KaiserD0000100017:330:00
S. RinzelD000300-3017:273:54
M. GrzelcykD000000+1016:100:00
L. CrevierD000111-1015:200:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight32266.81359:39Loss
A. Soderblom000–0:00

WPG Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. ConnorLW123200+3020:102:22
G. VilardiC213501+3018:582:19
M. ScheifeleC123200+3017:562:13
J. ToewsC011600-1020:211:38
V. NamestnikovC1013000018:481:47
N. NiederreiterRW0111500015:401:41
G. NyquistRW011000001:280:21
A. IafalloLW0000210016:242:11
T. PearsonLW0002110013:531:14
M. BarronC0003110213:000:00
C. KoepkeLW000110-1011:150:00
P. FordC000133-109:240:00
D. DeMeloD022211+1023:240:00
J. MorrisseyD112101+3022:232:10
N. PionkD0002410026:181:50
L. StanleyD0001010220:280:14
H. FleuryD0000010013:580:00
L. SchennD0000020010:120:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Hellebuyck24213.87560:00Win
E. Comrie000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1C. Bedard17:06A. Burakovsky15:37R. Greene16:19
Line 2F. Nazar15:10T. Teravainen13:47T. Bertuzzi14:15
Line 3R. Donato12:26C. Dach15:29N. Foligno11:46
Line 4L. Slaggert9:58J. Dickinson7:47
Pair 1A. Vlasic17:00S. Rinzel13:33
Pair 2W. Kaiser16:01L. Crevier13:36
Pair 3M. Grzelcyk15:49A. Levshunov12:12

WPG

Line 1K. Connor15:22G. Vilardi16:39M. Scheifele15:11
Line 2J. Toews17:12V. Namestnikov15:37A. Iafallo13:37
Line 3N. Niederreiter13:59M. Barron11:25T. Pearson11:26
Line 4C. Koepke8:21P. Ford8:36
Pair 1L. Stanley19:49N. Pionk20:43
Pair 2D. DeMelo20:14J. Morrissey19:37
Pair 3L. Schenn8:03H. Fleury11:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCHI 2.4, WPG 3.5CHI 3, WPG 6
Total goals5.99
Shots on goalCHI 23.1, WPG 30.0CHI 24, WPG 32
Win chanceWPG 69%WPG won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
WPG K. Connor3.621.23341%1
WPG M. Scheifele2.421.13338%1
CHI C. Bedard2.330.69223%0
WPG J. Morrissey2.210.88216%1
WPG G. Vilardi2.250.86333%2
CHI R. Donato2.000.51021%0
WPG N. Pionk2.020.5109%0
CHI F. Nazar1.950.58022%0
WPG N. Niederreiter1.910.46122%0
WPG A. Iafallo1.700.47019%0
CHI S. Rinzel1.730.3706%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.600.48020%0
CHI A. Burakovsky1.510.44115%1
WPG M. Barron1.530.33015%0
WPG J. Toews1.460.49118%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.430.59119%1
WPG V. Namestnikov1.330.50117%1
WPG T. Pearson1.220.30012%0
WPG G. Nyquist1.200.46115%0
CHI N. Foligno1.200.35013%0
CHI C. Dach1.210.28011%0
WPG C. Koepke1.110.22012%0
WPG D. DeMelo1.120.3626%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.100.1804%0
CHI J. Dickinson1.110.27013%0
WPG H. Fleury1.000.1603%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.010.2112%1
CHI C. Murphy0.920.1423%0
WPG L. Stanley0.910.2905%0
WPG P. Ford0.910.24012%0
CHI M. Grzelcyk0.900.2101%0
WPG L. Schenn0.900.1203%0
CHI A. Levshunov0.810.2112%0
CHI L. Slaggert0.800.1607%0
CHI L. Crevier0.710.1304%0
CHI R. Greene0.620.22011%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.