Game Recap: CHI 2, WPG 3 (OT), March 3, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI2

Final/OTTue, Mar 3, 2026Every game that night

WPG3

WPG beat CHI 3-2 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.51 expected goals to 2.24. WPG outshot CHI 32 to 19. M. Scheifele led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Scheifele had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. C. Hellebuyck stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CHI	1	0	1	0	2
WPG	1	0	1	1	3

1st 3:59WPGD. Samberg0.12 xG
1st 18:48CHIT. TeravainenPP0.14 xG
3rd 0:32CHIR. Greene0.07 xG
3rd 19:21WPGC. Perfetti0.05 xG
OT 2:06WPGM. Scheifele0.11 xG

Team Stats

CHIWPG

19Shots on goal32

2.24Expected goals2.51

42Shot attempts58

185v5 shots on goal24

1/3Power play0/2

19Hits28

18Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes6

14Giveaways10

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.24 xGWPG 2.51 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI19 on goal, 2 scored

WPG30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	2	2	3	1	0	0	2	19:19	1:55
F. Nazar	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	18:30	1:55
T. Teravainen	C	1	0	1	1	0	3	-1	0	17:43	1:55
R. Greene	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	15:17	1:12
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:16	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	15:44	1:55
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:18	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:07	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	14:05	1:12
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:00	1:12
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	11:51	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:00	1:12
S. Rinzel	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	2	22:19	1:25
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	25:47	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	20:13	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-2	0	18:47	1:42
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	16:55	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	15:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	32	29	3	.906	62:06	OT loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	1	2	3	6	1	0	+3	0	23:30	1:09
K. Connor	LW	0	1	1	4	0	1	+2	0	21:32	1:05
C. Perfetti	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	16:21	1:07
A. Iafallo	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	17:14	0:53
A. Lowry	C	0	0	0	2	5	1	-1	0	16:40	0:39
G. Vilardi	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	4	16:30	1:05
J. Toews	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:34	1:08
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	13:34	0:13
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:06	1:08
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:14	0:00
W. Duehr	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	9:47	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	9:42	0:00
D. Samberg	D	1	1	2	1	0	1	+2	0	22:14	0:12
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	0	26:44	1:18
E. Salomonsson	D	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	0	21:43	0:00
D. DeMelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:20	0:12
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:52	0:09
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	0	14:35	0:47

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Hellebuyck	19	17	2	.895	61:18	Win
E. Comrie	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1T. Teravainen15:04F. Nazar14:50R. Donato14:48

Line 2J. Dickinson12:47I. Mikheyev13:26T. Bertuzzi13:01

Line 3C. Bedard15:10A. Burakovsky12:12R. Greene13:17

Line 4N. Foligno10:48L. Slaggert10:57O. Moore9:48

Pair 1L. Crevier17:07A. Vlasic21:23

Pair 2S. Rinzel20:12E. Mastro15:07

Pair 3M. Grzelcyk15:26A. Levshunov15:02

WPG

Line 1M. Scheifele19:52K. Connor18:06A. Iafallo16:21

Line 2A. Lowry13:16C. Perfetti12:36G. Vilardi14:37

Line 3J. Toews11:28G. Nyquist11:53W. Duehr9:47

Line 4M. Barron11:12C. Koepke8:19T. Pearson8:30

Pair 1L. Stanley22:37E. Salomonsson19:09

Pair 2L. Schenn13:31H. Fleury13:48

Pair 3D. Samberg18:46D. DeMelo16:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.5, WPG 3.2	CHI 2, WPG 3
Total goals	5.7	5
Shots on goal	CHI 23.6, WPG 28.0	CHI 19, WPG 32
Win chance	WPG 62%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.7	4	1.32	1	42%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.7	3	0.90	2	27%	0
WPG C. Perfetti	2.5	3	0.71	1	24%	1
WPG M. Scheifele	2.4	6	1.27	3	40%	1
WPG G. Vilardi	2.2	1	0.94	0	34%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	1	0.67	0	26%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.0	1	0.55	1	19%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.9	3	0.40	1	7%	0
WPG L. Stanley	1.6	3	0.45	1	12%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.6	1	0.32	0	14%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.5	1	0.23	0	6%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.5	2	0.42	0	19%	0
WPG D. Samberg	1.5	1	0.32	2	5%	1
WPG E. Salomonsson	1.5	2	0.16	0	7%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.3	1	0.39	0	5%	0
WPG A. Lowry	1.3	2	0.41	0	17%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	1	0.59	1	19%	1
WPG J. Toews	1.3	1	0.38	0	15%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.3	3	0.37	0	16%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.3	0	0.39	0	16%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.3	0	0.45	0	15%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.2	1	0.32	1	11%	1
WPG G. Nyquist	1.2	1	0.38	0	13%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.2	1	0.34	0	7%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.2	0	0.27	0	4%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.1	2	0.28	0	12%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.1	0	0.25	0	12%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.1	0	0.28	0	2%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.1	1	0.30	0	13%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.0	0	0.31	0	9%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.9	1	0.22	0	6%	0
WPG W. Duehr	0.9	0	0.22	0	11%	0
CHI N. Foligno	0.8	1	0.30	0	11%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.8	2	0.18	0	8%	0
WPG L. Schenn	0.8	0	0.14	0	3%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.7	1	0.11	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.