Game Recap: COL 4, ANA 2, December 20, 2024

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Game Recap

COL4

FinalFri, Dec 20, 2024Every game that night

ANA2

COL beat ANA 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.21 expected goals to 2.65. ANA outshot COL 32 to 23. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Makar had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. S. Wedgewood stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	2	2	4
ANA	0	1	1	2

2nd 2:40ANAL. Carlsson0.09 xG
2nd 6:40COLP. KellySH0.14 xG
2nd 10:57COLV. Nichushkin0.61 xG
3rd 3:30COLC. MakarPP0.24 xG
3rd 13:05ANAA. Killorn0.11 xG
3rd 18:41COLN. MacKinnonEN0.72 xG

Team Stats

COLANA

23Shots on goal32

4.21Expected goals2.65

49Shot attempts63

135v5 shots on goal25

1/4Power play0/5

17Hits27

22Blocked shots12

13Penalty minutes13

5Giveaways8

1Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.21 xGANA 2.65 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL23 on goal, 4 scored

ANA31 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	2	3	3	0	1	+2	0	18:49	5:40
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	21:19	5:38
M. Rantanen	RW	0	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	19:51	5:39
L. O'Connor	RW	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	16:35	0:00
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	3	2	2	+1	4	14:03	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	19:00	2:05
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:14	4:15
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	16:06	0:53
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	11:24	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:49	1:02
J. Innala	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	7:09	0:00
G. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	6:08	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	1	2	7	1	3	+3	0	23:02	5:29
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	2	23:14	1:03
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	23:07	0:51
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	0	18:40	0:00
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	18:13	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	5	8:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	32	30	2	.938	59:59	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

ANA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Killorn	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	17:42	4:23
L. Carlsson	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	17:11	5:34
B. McGinn	LW	0	1	1	3	3	2	+2	0	14:31	0:00
T. Terry	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	20:37	5:54
F. Vatrano	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	2	19:59	5:27
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	17:17	5:23
R. Fabbri	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	16:44	4:35
C. Gauthier	LW	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	15:55	4:28
M. McTavish	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	14:50	4:35
I. Lundestrom	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:23	0:02
J. Harkins	C	0	0	0	0	3	3	+1	2	12:01	0:00
R. Johnston	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7	7:09	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	19:28	0:00
P. Mintyukov	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	16:00	0:05
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	21:00	0:03
J. LaCombe	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	20:31	5:49
O. Zellweger	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	20:08	4:08
R. Gudas	D	0	0	0	3	5	1	-1	2	12:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	22	19	3	.864	57:39	Loss
L. Dostal	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.4, ANA 2.9	COL 4, ANA 2
Total goals	6.4	6
Shots on goal	COL 31.8, ANA 28.0	COL 23, ANA 32
Win chance	COL 58%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	3	1.53	3	41%	1
COL C. Makar	3.2	7	1.18	2	25%	1
ANA F. Vatrano	3.1	3	0.71	0	32%	0
COL M. Rantanen	2.8	0	1.24	2	39%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.7	3	0.90	2	36%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.4	1	0.85	0	33%	0
ANA T. Terry	2.4	1	0.87	0	30%	0
COL R. Colton	2.2	0	0.58	0	25%	0
COL D. Toews	2.0	0	0.64	0	12%	0
ANA C. Gauthier	1.9	5	0.47	0	16%	0
ANA A. Killorn	1.8	2	0.63	1	25%	1
ANA M. McTavish	1.8	3	0.61	0	22%	0
ANA O. Zellweger	1.8	0	0.36	0	8%	0
ANA R. Strome	1.7	3	0.59	0	18%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.6	3	0.25	0	7%	0
ANA J. Trouba	1.5	1	0.31	1	6%	0
ANA R. Fabbri	1.5	2	0.52	0	24%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.5	0	0.67	0	19%	0
ANA L. Carlsson	1.4	1	0.46	1	19%	1
COL S. Girard	1.3	2	0.40	0	6%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.3	0	0.32	1	13%	0
ANA P. Mintyukov	1.2	1	0.35	1	7%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	1	0.23	0	11%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	3	0.23	1	10%	1
ANA B. McGinn	1.1	3	0.27	1	14%	0
ANA J. LaCombe	1.1	2	0.35	0	8%	0
ANA R. Gudas	1.0	3	0.24	0	4%	0
COL C. Haan	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
ANA B. Dumoulin	1.0	1	0.26	0	4%	0
ANA I. Lundestrom	0.9	1	0.27	0	13%	0
ANA J. Harkins	0.8	0	0.19	0	8%	0
COL I. Ivan	0.8	0	0.21	0	11%	0
COL K. Middleton	0.8	0	0.09	0	3%	0
COL G. Smith	0.7	0	0.11	0	5%	0
ANA R. Johnston	0.5	0	0.14	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.