Game Recap: COL 1, BOS 3, January 25, 2025

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Game Recap

COL1

FinalSat, Jan 25, 2025Every game that night

BOS3

BOS beat COL 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.49 expected goals to 2.19. COL outshot BOS 28 to 15. D. Pastrnak led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). D. Toews had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Swayman stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	1	0	1
BOS	0	0	3	3

2nd 1:30COLA. Lehkonen0.05 xG
3rd 0:25BOSM. Geekie0.07 xG
3rd 5:44BOSM. Geekie0.24 xG
3rd 19:57BOSD. PastrnakEN0.74 xG

Team Stats

COLBOS

28Shots on goal15

2.19Expected goals1.49

69Shot attempts34

245v5 shots on goal14

0/2Power play0/0

22Hits25

11Blocked shots22

0Penalty minutes4

15Giveaways21

5Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.19 xGBOS 1.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL28 on goal, 1 scored

BOS14 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:17	3:10
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	15:53	0:35
J. Parssinen	C	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	12:25	0:30
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	2	1	2	-3	25:08	3:30
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	24:22	3:25
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	8	0	0	-1	23:48	3:26
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	15:44	0:41
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	15:04	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	14:50	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:58	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7:22	0:00
C. Wagner	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	6:51	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	26:16	3:05
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	6	0	2	-3	25:44	1:04
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	19:30	0:34
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	17:41	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	14:19	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	11:10	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	14	12	2	.857	57:38	Loss
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	2	3	3	1	0	+3	2	19:09	0:00
M. Geekie	C	2	0	2	2	1	2	+2	0	17:28	0:00
C. Coyle	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	0	21:00	0:00
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	19:26	0:00
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	18:53	0:00
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	17:01	0:00
M. Poitras	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:56	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:39	0:00
V. Lettieri	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	11:22	0:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	9:34	0:00
J. Brazeau	RW	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	8:01	0:00
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	7:12	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	+2	0	22:43	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	22:21	0:00
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+2	0	20:35	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	18:58	0:00
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	18:50	0:00
M. Callahan	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	16:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	28	27	1	.964	60:00	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCasey Mittelstadt BOS Faces COL, his team until Mar 20251 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.1, BOS 2.9	COL 1, BOS 3
Total goals	6.0	4
Shots on goal	COL 29.7, BOS 27.2	COL 28, BOS 15
Win chance	COL 52%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.0	8	1.41	0	37%	0
BOS D. Pastrnak	4.0	3	1.20	3	43%	1
COL C. Makar	2.7	2	0.96	0	21%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.5	0	0.81	1	29%	0
COL M. Necas	2.3	2	0.72	0	22%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	1	0.68	1	28%	1
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	2	0.58	2	23%	2
COL D. Toews	1.9	6	0.57	0	11%	0
COL R. Colton	1.9	1	0.46	0	21%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.8	0	0.73	1	23%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.8	3	0.59	0	23%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.7	1	0.76	0	18%	0
BOS C. Coyle	1.5	0	0.53	1	21%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	0	0.31	0	7%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	0	0.27	0	9%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.4	1	0.33	0	13%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.4	1	0.39	0	18%	0
BOS V. Lettieri	1.3	1	0.28	0	14%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	1	0.31	0	9%	0
COL S. Girard	1.3	1	0.34	0	5%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.3	1	0.55	1	16%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	0	0.24	0	11%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.2	1	0.36	0	16%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.2	0	0.25	0	11%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	2	0.16	0	4%	0
BOS M. Jones	1.2	1	0.25	0	10%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.19	0	5%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.0	0	0.40	0	12%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.0	0	0.23	1	4%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	0.9	0	0.44	0	7%	0
COL K. Middleton	0.9	1	0.05	0	2%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.9	2	0.17	0	3%	0
COL C. Wagner	0.8	1	0.08	0	5%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.6	0	0.18	0	10%	0
COL J. Parssinen	0.6	0	0.21	1	8%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.