Game Recap: COL 2, BOS 3, October 25, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

COL2

FinalSat, Oct 25, 2025Every game that night

BOS3

BOS beat COL 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.00 expected goals to 3.41. COL outshot BOS 33 to 19. M. Lohrei led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). M. Geekie had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Swayman stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	1	0	1	2
BOS	2	1	0	3

1st 4:26COLA. Lehkonen0.19 xG
1st 14:16BOSV. Arvidsson0.30 xG
1st 14:55BOSM. Eyssimont0.14 xG
2nd 19:55BOSM. Geekie0.08 xG
3rd 19:40COLA. Lehkonen0.16 xG

Team Stats

COLBOS

33Shots on goal19

3.41Expected goals2.00

84Shot attempts40

235v5 shots on goal13

0/3Power play0/4

15Hits24

7Blocked shots34

14Penalty minutes10

8Giveaways16

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.41 xGBOS 2.00 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL33 on goal, 2 scored

BOS19 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	+2	4	21:38	3:07
A. Lehkonen	LW	2	0	2	5	1	0	+2	0	20:54	1:24
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	6	2	0	0	0	23:32	3:05
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	20:59	2:48
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	19:24	1:41
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	15:01	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:54	2:24
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	13:17	1:13
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	12:33	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:01	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:46	1:14
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	4:33	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	27:13	2:55
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	24:19	1:20
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-2	0	19:47	0:05
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	2	19:36	0:04
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:10	0:20
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	10:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	19	16	3	.842	57:30	Loss
T. Miner	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	21:11	5:41
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:07	2:22
M. Geekie	C	1	0	1	6	0	1	0	0	18:05	4:23
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	3	3	3	+1	0	15:08	1:50
T. Jeannot	LW	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	11:53	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	10:13	0:25
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	1	0	6	0	0	18:49	4:21
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	2	18:33	3:55
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:31	0:05
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	12:28	0:07
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	1	3	3	-1	0	12:01	0:14
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	9:40	0:00
M. Lohrei	D	0	3	3	0	1	3	+2	0	18:58	1:44
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	6	24:15	4:24
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	0	21:11	0:15
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	+2	0	19:46	0:12
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	+1	0	17:40	1:37
M. Callahan	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	14:01	0:05

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	33	31	2	.939	59:30	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1A. Lehkonen15:59N. MacKinnon15:19M. Necas14:54

Line 2J. Drury11:55R. Colton12:06V. Olofsson10:27

Line 3B. Nelson12:37V. Nichushkin13:56G. Landeskog11:48

Line 4G. Brindley5:23P. Kelly5:07Z. Bardakov4:33

Pair 1D. Toews17:25C. Makar16:28

Pair 2B. Burns16:46J. Manson16:00

Pair 3S. Malinski11:44I. Solovyov10:53

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm13:36M. Geekie13:09D. Pastrnak14:31

Line 2P. Zacha12:25C. Mittelstadt12:14V. Arvidsson11:38

Line 3M. Eyssimont9:25T. Jeannot9:36F. Minten7:34

Line 4S. Kuraly10:29M. Kastelic10:19J. Beecher8:50

Pair 1M. Lohrei16:50A. Peeke17:29

Pair 2N. Zadorov14:01C. McAvoy15:14

Pair 3H. Jokiharju13:47M. Callahan12:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamCasey Mittelstadt BOS Faces COL, his team until Mar 20251 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.5, BOS 2.8	COL 2, BOS 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	COL 31.2, BOS 25.1	COL 33, BOS 19
Win chance	COL 61%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	3	1.48	2	39%	0
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.6	1	1.17	1	41%	0
COL C. Makar	2.9	2	1.09	1	24%	0
COL M. Necas	2.7	1	0.97	0	28%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.4	6	0.72	1	31%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.3	5	0.74	2	29%	2
COL B. Nelson	2.2	3	0.78	0	30%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.0	3	0.47	1	19%	1
COL V. Olofsson	2.0	1	0.52	0	22%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.9	6	0.76	1	29%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	1.9	1	0.60	0	23%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.9	2	0.71	0	26%	0
COL B. Burns	1.9	2	0.41	0	8%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	1.8	1	0.25	1	11%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	0	0.55	0	10%	0
COL R. Colton	1.6	1	0.38	0	16%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	2	0.32	0	7%	0
COL D. Toews	1.5	0	0.52	0	10%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.4	0	0.24	0	6%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.4	2	0.62	0	19%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.4	0	0.27	0	12%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	2	0.31	0	11%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.3	1	0.26	0	12%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	1	0.23	0	10%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.2	0	0.29	0	8%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.1	1	0.47	1	16%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.1	0	0.18	0	12%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.0	1	0.23	1	12%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.0	2	0.18	0	3%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.0	0	0.30	3	5%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	0.9	0	0.21	0	4%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.9	1	0.20	0	11%	0
COL I. Solovyov	0.9	1	0.16	0	2%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.7	0	0.17	0	9%	0
BOS M. Callahan	0.7	0	0.11	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.