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Game Recap
COL5
BUF4
COL beat BUF 5-4, with the chances close: 4.03 expected goals to 3.69. COL outshot BUF 41 to 30. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. de Haan had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. S. Wedgewood stopped 22 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| BUF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 3:22BUFT. Thompson0.62 xG
- 1st 6:39BUFT. Thompson0.04 xG
- 1st 6:50BUFJ. Peterka0.16 xG
- 1st 11:49BUFB. Malenstyn0.13 xG
- 2nd 2:24COLN. MacKinnon0.14 xG
- 3rd 1:19COLJ. Kiviranta0.14 xG
- 3rd 4:30COLL. O'Connor0.49 xG
- 3rd 7:39COLN. MacKinnon0.04 xG
- 3rd 15:38COLA. Lehkonen0.37 xG
Team Stats
COLBUF
41Shots on goal30
4.03Expected goals3.69
74Shot attempts60
405v5 shots on goal25
0/1Power play0/3
24Hits19
13Blocked shots11
4Penalty minutes2
15Giveaways16
5Takeaways9
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 4.03 xGBUF 3.69 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:33 | 1:42 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:58 | 1:41 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:33 | 1:41 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:37 | 1:41 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:17 | 0:19 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:00 | 0:19 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:00 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:35 | 0:18 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:16 | 0:00 |
| N. Prishchepov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:37 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:55 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 28:27 | 0:26 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:33 | 0:19 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 27:20 | 1:34 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Ludvig | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 8 | 4 | 4 | .500 | 11:49 | |
| S. Wedgewood | 22 | 22 | 0 | 1.000 | 48:11 | Win |
BUF Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Thompson | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:52 | 3:44 |
| J. Zucker | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:54 | 3:47 |
| A. Tuch | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:20 | 2:11 |
| D. Cozens | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:52 | 3:46 |
| J. Peterka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:20 | 2:38 |
| Z. Benson | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:53 | 2:06 |
| N. Aube-Kubel | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:44 | 0:02 |
| B. Malenstyn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:02 | 0:00 |
| R. McLeod | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:07 |
| P. Krebs | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:03 |
| J.Kulich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:22 | 2:04 |
| J. Quinn | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:23 | 2:11 |
| B. Byram | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 26:30 | 0:42 |
| C. Clifton | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| O. Power | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 21:54 | 3:11 |
| H. Jokiharju | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:06 |
| R. Dahlin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:16 | 3:22 |
| J. Bryson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. Luukkonen | 41 | 36 | 5 | .878 | 58:44 | Loss |
| J. Reimer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.3, BUF 3.1 | COL 5, BUF 4 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | COL 29.5, BUF 28.9 | COL 41, BUF 30 |
| Win chance | COL 52% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.3 | 9 | 1.51 | 3 | 41% | 2 |
| BUF T. Thompson | 3.2 | 5 | 0.97 | 2 | 38% | 2 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 2.9 | 2 | 1.22 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.7 | 1 | 1.04 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| BUF J. Peterka | 2.6 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.6 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| BUF R. Dahlin | 2.6 | 1 | 0.79 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| BUF A. Tuch | 2.5 | 1 | 0.97 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| BUF D. Cozens | 2.5 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.3 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| BUF J. Zucker | 2.0 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| BUF J.Kulich | 1.9 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.8 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| BUF J. Quinn | 1.7 | 3 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.6 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF O. Power | 1.5 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| BUF Z. Benson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| BUF B. Byram | 1.3 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 1.2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| BUF R. McLeod | 1.1 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.1 | 3 | 0.29 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.1 | 3 | 0.37 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL N. Kovalenko | 1.0 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| BUF P. Krebs | 1.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| BUF H. Jokiharju | 0.9 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 0.9 | 7 | 0.13 | 2 | 4% | 0 |
| BUF N. Aube-Kubel | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| BUF B. Malenstyn | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| COL C. Wagner | 0.8 | 1 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF C. Clifton | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| COL J. Ludvig | 0.7 | 4 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL N. Prishchepov | 0.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| BUF J. Bryson | 0.4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.