Game Recap: COL 3, CAR 5, December 5, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

COL3

FinalThu, Dec 5, 2024Every game that night

CAR5

CAR beat COL 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.58 expected goals to 2.39. CAR outshot COL 35 to 19. A. Svechnikov led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). S. Jarvis had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. P. Kochetkov stopped 16 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	1	0	2	3
CAR	1	2	2	5

1st 9:13COLA. Lehkonen0.20 xG
1st 16:05CARE. Robinson0.05 xG
2nd 4:09CARS. JarvisPP0.06 xG
2nd 6:41CARJ. Roslovic0.09 xG
3rd 14:41COLV. Nichushkin0.08 xG
3rd 17:49CARM. NecasPP0.06 xG
3rd 18:13COLV. Nichushkin0.20 xG
3rd 19:44CARA. SvechnikovEN0.58 xG

Team Stats

COLCAR

19Shots on goal35

2.39Expected goals4.58

38Shot attempts74

145v5 shots on goal26

0/3Power play2/5

22Hits13

15Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes6

23Giveaways21

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.39 xGCAR 4.58 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL19 on goal, 3 scored

CAR35 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Nichushkin	RW	2	0	2	2	0	0	+1	0	19:25	3:35
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	3	2	3	0	0	25:05	3:35
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	24:08	3:37
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	10:37	0:00
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	2	25:23	3:37
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	15:03	0:07
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	4	14:59	1:26
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	13:41	0:10
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	11:37	1:21
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	9:08	1:19
C. Wagner	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5:39	0:00
N. Prishchepov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:16	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	2	2	3	0	2	+1	0	28:30	3:40
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	+1	2	26:03	1:26
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:49	1:15
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	+1	0	16:27	0:07
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	13:31	0:00
J. Ludvig	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	12:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	34	30	4	.882	58:00	Loss
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	3	4	4	2	0	0	0	19:47	5:46
S. Aho	C	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	0	22:47	5:31
M. Necas	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	19:48	5:52
S. Jarvis	RW	1	0	1	6	1	0	-2	0	22:16	5:24
J. Roslovic	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:21	1:16
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	2	14:19	1:32
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:30	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	17:30	0:00
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	16:23	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	8:57	1:48
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	7:09	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:35	1:29
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	-1	0	21:27	1:41
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	17:59	5:32
S. Walker	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	13:33	0:04
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	0	22:17	0:17
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:06	0:18
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	18:57	0:15

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	19	16	3	.842	59:19	Win
D. Tokarski	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrent Burns COL Faces CAR, his team until May 20251 A, 1 SOG
Old teamMartin Necas COL Faces CAR, his team until Jan 20251 G, 1 A, 2 SOG
Old teamSean Walker CAR Faces COL, his team until May 20241 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 2.9, CAR 3.4	COL 3, CAR 5
Total goals	6.3	8
Shots on goal	COL 27.3, CAR 31.8	COL 19, CAR 35
Win chance	CAR 57%	CAR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.0	3	1.38	1	37%	0
COL M. Rantanen	2.8	4	1.14	0	37%	0
CAR M. Necas	2.7	2	0.96	2	28%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	4	0.85	4	28%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.5	3	1.08	2	35%	0
COL C. Makar	2.4	3	0.92	2	20%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.3	2	0.76	2	30%	2
CAR S. Jarvis	2.2	6	0.82	1	29%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.2	2	0.74	1	28%	1
CAR B. Burns	1.9	1	0.48	1	10%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.8	2	0.51	0	18%	0
CAR J. Drury	1.8	2	0.43	1	13%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.6	1	0.64	1	11%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.6	2	0.52	1	18%	1
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.5	0	0.62	0	18%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.5	1	0.47	0	9%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.5	2	0.41	0	16%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.5	1	0.37	0	17%	0
COL D. Toews	1.4	2	0.49	1	9%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.4	1	0.40	0	7%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.4	2	0.38	0	14%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.4	1	0.24	1	6%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.3	0	0.31	0	16%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	2	0.33	0	8%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.2	2	0.40	1	15%	1
COL L. O'Connor	1.1	2	0.28	0	11%	0
COL I. Ivan	1.1	0	0.28	0	13%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	0	0.19	0	9%	0
COL S. Girard	0.9	0	0.32	0	5%	0
COL P. Kelly	0.9	0	0.17	1	8%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	0.9	0	0.25	0	11%	0
COL C. Haan	0.8	1	0.13	0	3%	0
COL C. Wagner	0.8	0	0.08	0	5%	0
COL J. Ludvig	0.7	0	0.15	0	5%	0
COL N. Prishchepov	0.4	0	0.08	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 27 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.