Game Recap: COL 5, CAR 3, January 3, 2026

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Game Recap

COL5

FinalSat, Jan 3, 2026Every game that night

CAR3

COL beat CAR 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 5.68 expected goals to 3.52. N. MacKinnon led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). B. Nelson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. S. Wedgewood stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	1	4	5
CAR	1	2	0	3

1st 18:09CARS. AhoSH0.18 xG
2nd 1:47COLG. Landeskog0.06 xG
2nd 4:47CARN. EhlersPP0.18 xG
2nd 7:50CARA. Svechnikov0.20 xG
3rd 1:09COLB. NelsonPP0.37 xG
3rd 1:42COLJ. Drury0.14 xG
3rd 7:30COLB. NelsonPP0.11 xG
3rd 19:42COLN. MacKinnonEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

COLCAR

34Shots on goal28

5.68Expected goals3.52

65Shot attempts55

235v5 shots on goal22

2/5Power play1/3

19Hits18

10Blocked shots15

6Penalty minutes10

13Giveaways15

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 5.68 xGCAR 3.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL35 on goal, 5 scored

CAR28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	3	4	2	2	1	0	0	20:04	5:36
M. Necas	C	0	2	2	0	4	1	0	0	22:44	5:31
B. Nelson	C	2	0	2	7	1	0	-1	0	22:28	5:52
G. Landeskog	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	18:52	2:49
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	4	2	1	0	0	16:32	3:06
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	15:20	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	10:42	2:17
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	21:01	5:28
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	11:26	2:07
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	10:27	0:03
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	6:54	0:02
T. Makar	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	5:18	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	2	2	2	1	0	-1	0	24:35	6:03
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	18:25	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	18:21	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	17:25	0:17
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	16:49	2:14
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	16:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	28	25	3	.893	60:00	Win
T. Miner	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Aho	C	1	1	2	7	1	2	+1	0	22:11	3:41
N. Ehlers	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	2	17:42	4:09
A. Svechnikov	RW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	2	17:28	3:17
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	14:51	2:37
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	0	1	2	-1	0	12:49	2:09
E. Robinson	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	11:03	0:00
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	5	1	1	-1	0	17:17	0:00
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:00	0:29
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	15:47	3:42
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	11:33	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:15	1:13
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	8:21	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	2	21:46	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	23:24	2:09
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	-1	0	22:44	3:42
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:08	0:00
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:30	2:12
J. Nystrom	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	12:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	34	30	4	.882	57:58	Loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1M. Necas15:11G. Landeskog15:00N. MacKinnon13:06

Line 2B. Nelson13:20V. Nichushkin12:56A. Lehkonen12:02

Line 3V. Olofsson9:19J. Drury12:29R. Colton8:25

Line 4P. Kelly7:09Z. Bardakov6:52T. Makar5:18

Pair 1S. Girard16:08S. Malinski16:15

Pair 2B. Burns14:22J. Manson14:43

Pair 3D. Toews11:33C. Makar14:57

CAR

Line 1S. Aho13:25A. Svechnikov12:42N. Ehlers12:04

Line 2J. Staal11:10J. Martinook12:04L. Stankoven10:40

Line 3T. Hall11:41J. Blake11:32M. Jankowski9:39

Line 4J. Kotkaniemi10:01E. Robinson7:57W. Carrier8:21

Pair 1S. Gostisbehere16:58J. Chatfield16:43

Pair 2S. Walker14:21K. Miller17:09

Pair 3J. Nystrom11:25A. Nikishin11:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrent Burns COL Faces CAR, his team until May 20252 SOG
Old teamMartin Necas COL Faces CAR, his team until Jan 20252 A, 0 SOG
Old teamSean Walker CAR Faces COL, his team until May 20243 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.3, CAR 2.9	COL 5, CAR 3
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	COL 28.2, CAR 29.8	COL 34, CAR 28
Win chance	COL 55%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	2	1.41	4	39%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	4	0.69	1	26%	1
CAR N. Ehlers	2.5	1	0.71	1	26%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.3	3	0.75	0	30%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.2	2	0.78	1	27%	1
CAR S. Aho	2.2	7	0.80	2	30%	1
COL C. Makar	2.2	2	0.88	2	20%	0
COL M. Necas	2.1	0	0.91	2	26%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	2.1	0	0.40	1	17%	0
CAR J. Blake	2.1	2	0.54	0	23%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	7	0.79	2	30%	2
COL A. Lehkonen	2.0	4	0.65	1	26%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.9	3	0.24	0	7%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	1	0.44	1	18%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.6	0	0.33	1	15%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.5	1	0.58	0	9%	0
COL R. Colton	1.5	4	0.34	1	14%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.5	0	0.34	0	7%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	0	0.38	0	16%	0
COL B. Burns	1.4	2	0.31	0	7%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.3	2	0.36	0	16%	0
CAR K. Miller	1.3	0	0.33	1	6%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.3	2	0.23	0	13%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	0	0.31	0	6%	0
COL D. Toews	1.3	1	0.43	0	8%	0
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.2	0	0.28	0	12%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.2	2	0.21	0	6%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.2	5	0.32	0	13%	0
COL J. Manson	1.1	3	0.29	0	6%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	0	0.24	0	10%	0
CAR M. Jankowski	1.1	0	0.24	0	13%	0
COL J. Drury	1.0	1	0.27	1	10%	1
CAR J. Nystrom	1.0	0	0.22	0	2%	0
COL S. Girard	0.8	1	0.26	0	4%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.7	0	0.20	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 14 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.