Game Recap: COL 4, CGY 2, February 6, 2025

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Game Recap

COL4

FinalThu, Feb 6, 2025Every game that night

CGY2

COL beat CGY 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.83 expected goals to 2.32. M. Necas led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Makar had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. M. Blackwood stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	3	1	4
CGY	1	0	1	2

1st 3:22CGYJ. HuberdeauPP0.17 xG
2nd 1:20COLC. Makar0.04 xG
2nd 5:34COLA. Lehkonen0.72 xG
2nd 19:42COLM. NecasPP0.09 xG
3rd 12:53COLM. Necas0.23 xG
3rd 18:14CGYR. Andersson0.01 xG

Team Stats

COLCGY

34Shots on goal29

3.83Expected goals2.32

67Shot attempts48

265v5 shots on goal19

1/3Power play1/5

13Hits22

11Blocked shots18

15Penalty minutes11

17Giveaways19

11Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.83 xGCGY 2.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL33 on goal, 4 scored

CGY27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	2	1	3	8	2	0	+3	0	24:15	4:38
N. MacKinnon	C	0	3	3	2	0	0	+2	2	22:47	4:32
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	5	1	1	+3	0	24:31	4:22
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	0	0	12:21	0:00
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:04	4:20
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	13:17	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	13:11	0:32
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:50	0:49
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:28	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9:48	0:47
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:47	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7	8:23	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	1	2	8	0	0	+2	0	26:43	4:41
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	22:39	0:28
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	1	2	4	+2	0	19:05	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	19:36	0:36
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	14:19	0:00
O. Kylington	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	13:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	29	27	2	.931	60:00	Win
T. Miner	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	24:44	5:23
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	22:53	5:47
M. Coronato	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	-2	0	20:11	5:22
M. Pospisil	C	0	1	1	4	5	0	+1	0	13:09	0:00
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	17:14	5:21
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	15:52	3:00
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	15:43	3:02
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	15:17	3:21
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:06	2:54
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	9:31	0:11
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9:21	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	5	7:17	0:25
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	25:05	3:23
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	24:01	5:37
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-2	0	19:25	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:17	0:00
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	15:09	1:09
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	2	13:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	34	30	4	.882	58:13	Loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNazem Kadri COL Faces CGY, his team until Mar 20261 A, 4 SOG
HometownCale Makar COL Plays in his hometown1 G, 1 A, 8 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.0, CGY 2.7	COL 4, CGY 2
Total goals	5.8	6
Shots on goal	COL 28.7, CGY 28.5	COL 34, CGY 29
Win chance	COL 55%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	2	1.41	3	38%	0
CGY N. Kadri	3.5	4	0.90	1	31%	0
COL M. Necas	2.9	8	0.93	3	28%	2
COL C. Makar	2.8	8	0.99	2	22%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.6	3	0.63	0	26%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.5	1	0.59	1	22%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.3	0	0.49	0	19%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	3	0.57	1	12%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.2	5	0.73	1	31%	1
CGY J. Huberdeau	2.1	5	0.85	1	25%	1
COL D. Toews	2.1	0	0.57	1	11%	0
CGY J. Farabee	2.0	1	0.47	0	19%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.9	1	0.55	0	19%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.9	0	0.56	0	24%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.7	2	0.41	1	9%	1
COL R. Colton	1.7	2	0.42	0	20%	0
COL M. Wood	1.7	0	0.25	0	12%	0
COL J. Drury	1.5	1	0.30	0	10%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.5	1	0.70	0	17%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.4	4	0.34	1	10%	0
COL S. Girard	1.3	1	0.33	0	5%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.3	1	0.31	0	13%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.2	0	0.22	0	6%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.2	1	0.51	0	15%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.1	2	0.24	0	6%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	3	0.22	1	10%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.1	1	0.15	1	4%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	1	0.16	0	10%	0
COL O. Kylington	1.0	0	0.23	0	6%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	0	0.23	0	11%	0
COL C. Haan	0.9	0	0.16	0	3%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	2	0.12	0	7%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	0	0.16	0	3%	0
COL J. Parssinen	0.7	0	0.27	0	11%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.6	0	0.10	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.