Game Recap: COL 4, CGY 2, March 14, 2025

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Game Recap

COL4

FinalFri, Mar 14, 2025Every game that night

CGY2

COL beat CGY 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.71 expected goals to 1.93. P. Kelly led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Kiviranta had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. S. Wedgewood stopped 22 of 24.

Team Stats

COLCGY

28Shots on goal24

2.71Expected goals1.93

58Shot attempts63

265v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play1/2

19Hits32

17Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes2

23Giveaways26

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.71 xGCGY 1.93 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL26 on goal, 3 scored

CGY24 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kelly	C	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	0	13:00	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	2	2	2	3	3	+2	0	11:20	0:14
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	16:46	1:46
L. O'Connor	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:09	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	11:07	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	19:57	1:47
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:12	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:26	2:00
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:48	1:01
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	2	15:35	0:59
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	13:12	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	4	2	2	+1	0	11:42	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	22:08	0:13
R. Lindgren	D	1	0	1	2	2	3	+3	2	20:00	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	25:51	0:27
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	24:26	1:33
E. Johnson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	17:11	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	8:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	24	22	2	.917	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Coronato	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	-1	0	22:10	2:36
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	-2	0	21:48	2:33
B. Coleman	LW	1	0	1	3	6	1	0	2	19:56	0:45
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	13:59	1:07
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	22:59	2:34
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	4	1	2	0	0	18:38	2:11
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	2	5	0	-1	0	15:43	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	15:30	0:44
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	10:19	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:00	0:42
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:01	0:00
D. Hunt	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	6:20	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	2	5	4	-1	0	25:06	2:13
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	-2	0	23:30	1:05
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	21:50	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	21:28	0:00
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:56	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	11:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	27	24	3	.889	57:59	Loss
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNazem Kadri COL Faces CGY, his team until Mar 20263 SOG
HometownCale Makar COL Plays in his hometown3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.2, CGY 2.7	COL 4, CGY 2
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	COL 29.0, CGY 27.1	COL 28, CGY 24
Win chance	COL 58%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.0	2	1.43	0	38%	0
CGY N. Kadri	3.4	3	0.88	0	31%	0
COL C. Makar	2.7	3	0.97	0	21%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	1	0.88	0	27%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.4	1	0.75	0	31%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.4	2	0.76	1	32%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.2	3	0.53	1	23%	1
CGY M. Weegar	2.1	2	0.56	1	12%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.1	3	0.49	1	20%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	0	0.71	0	30%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	2.0	2	0.83	1	25%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.7	4	0.52	0	18%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	2	0.52	0	10%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.7	0	0.51	0	23%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.7	1	0.40	1	9%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.7	2	0.41	1	18%	0
COL R. Colton	1.5	2	0.37	2	17%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	0	0.27	1	10%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	3	0.30	0	6%	0
COL C. Coyle	1.3	1	0.41	0	18%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.3	2	0.33	0	10%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.2	0	0.59	0	16%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	0	0.30	1	5%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
CGY D. Hunt	1.0	1	0.22	0	10%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.0	3	0.21	2	9%	2
COL L. O'Connor	1.0	1	0.25	1	11%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.0	0	0.14	0	9%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.9	0	0.17	0	5%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.9	0	0.22	0	4%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	4	0.22	0	11%	0
COL R. Lindgren	0.8	2	0.26	1	3%	1
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	0	0.12	0	7%	0
COL E. Johnson	0.8	1	0.12	0	4%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	0	0.13	0	7%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.