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Game Recap
COL7
FinalThu, Oct 8, 2026Every game that night
CGY3

COL beat CGY 7-3, with the chances close: 2.88 expected goals to 2.44. C. Makar led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Backlund had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. S. Wedgewood stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
COL1337
CGY1023
  1. 1st 15:54COLD. Toews0.12 xG
  2. 1st 17:30CGYA. Klapka0.12 xG
  3. 2nd 6:45COLD. Toews0.02 xG
  4. 2nd 9:16COLC. Makar0.06 xG
  5. 2nd 11:39COLN. MacKinnon0.05 xG
  6. 3rd 5:35COLC. Makar0.06 xG
  7. 3rd 6:34COLJ. Schwartz0.18 xG
  8. 3rd 7:17CGYM. Backlund0.08 xG
  9. 3rd 8:28CGYK. Bahl0.16 xG
  10. 3rd 9:41COLJ. Schwartz0.03 xG

Team Stats

COLCGY
30Shots on goal29
2.88Expected goals2.44
61Shot attempts61
275v5 shots on goal24
0/3Power play0/2
18Hits23
14Blocked shots15
9Penalty minutes9
23Giveaways18
5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.88 xGCGY 2.44 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdCOL goal, 15:54CGY goal, 17:30COL goal, 6:45COL goal, 9:16COL goal, 11:39COL goal, 5:35COL goal, 6:34CGY goal, 7:17CGY goal, 8:28COL goal, 9:41

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL29 on goal, 7 scored
CGY29 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. MacKinnonC123200+2018:422:54
J. SchwartzLW202200+2013:510:52
N. KadriC011200+1017:142:32
T. HughesRW011610+2016:262:42
B. NelsonC0111200015:350:39
F. SvechkovC011001+2011:550:00
P. KellyC0112210211:340:08
Z. L'HeureuxLW0112200510:560:00
A. LehkonenLW000121+2017:221:00
M. NecasC0002000017:182:49
G. LandeskogLW0001210014:090:52
N. RoyC000020+1014:030:00
C. MakarD213200+2022:172:44
D. ToewsD202300+3218:540:59
B. KulakD022003+2018:420:28
B. BurnsD0112020020:000:13
N. JuulsenD011032+1016:350:13
J. MansonD0002230020:270:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Wedgewood29263.89760:00Win
M. Blackwood000–0:00

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. BacklundC1018000017:410:00
J. FarabeeLW0112000017:031:49
Y. SharangovichC011400+1014:490:00
R. StromeC011002-1014:390:00
A. KlapkaRW101150-1010:400:00
J. CastagnaC011031-109:090:00
M. FrostC000101-1017:241:49
M. CoronatoRW000000-2516:241:49
S. HonzekLW000131-2015:530:00
M. GridinRW000201-1014:481:49
M. PospisilC000240-2014:460:00
A. SunievLW000101-2011:410:00
K. BahlD1011000021:590:00
Z. ParekhD000112-1421:171:49
S. NemecD000112-3020:100:00
Y. KuznetsovD000220-3018:510:00
J. MiddletonD000133-1018:340:00
Z. WhitecloudD0001110018:120:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Cooley30237.76760:00Loss
D. Wolf000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. Kadri14:42N. MacKinnon15:05A. Lehkonen14:34
Line 2J. Schwartz12:12T. Hughes13:44F. Svechkov11:55
Line 3B. Nelson12:26G. Landeskog13:17M. Necas13:51
Line 4N. Roy13:16P. Kelly10:39Z. L'Heureux10:56
Pair 1B. Burns19:00J. Manson18:43
Pair 2C. Makar18:03D. Toews16:41
Pair 3B. Kulak16:15N. Juulsen15:36

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund14:20Y. Sharangovich13:58J. Farabee13:39
Line 2M. Frost14:46M. Coronato13:38M. Gridin12:59
Line 3R. Strome13:44M. Pospisil13:52S. Honzek13:15
Line 4A. Klapka10:40A. Suniev11:41J. Castagna9:09
Pair 1J. Middleton17:35Z. Parekh19:28
Pair 2Y. Kuznetsov16:00S. Nemec18:04
Pair 3Z. Whitecloud15:15K. Bahl18:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 16 overs hit (38%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
COL N. MacKinnon3.5-140+1252Under
COL C. Makar2.5-102-1112Under
CGY M. Coronato2.5+110-1400Under
COL M. Necas2.5-138+1102Under
COL N. Kadri2.5+110-1182Under
COL A. Lehkonen1.5-140+1201Under
COL B. Burns1.5-135+1052Over
COL B. Nelson1.5-155+1401Under
COL D. Toews1.5+105-1103Over
COL G. Landeskog1.5-170+1401Under
CGY J. Farabee1.5-120-1052Over
CGY M. Backlund1.5-140+1158Over
CGY M. Frost1.5-130+1151Under
CGY M. Gridin1.5-180+1352Over
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.5+100-1454Over
CGY Z. Parekh1.5-106-1101Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamNazem Kadri COL Faces CGY, his team until Mar 20261 A, 2 SOG
  • HometownCale Makar COL Plays in his hometown2 G, 1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCOL 3.5, CGY 2.5COL 7, CGY 3
Total goals6.110
Shots on goalCOL 33.0, CGY 26.5COL 30, CGY 29
Win chanceCOL 65%COL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon3.821.30338%1
COL N. Kadri2.820.69125%0
COL M. Necas2.721.07030%0
COL C. Makar2.620.94321%2
COL G. Landeskog2.510.80030%0
CGY M. Coronato2.500.56022%0
CGY M. Backlund2.180.40116%1
COL A. Lehkonen2.010.61026%0
CGY M. Gridin2.020.54016%0
COL B. Nelson1.910.60127%0
CGY M. Frost1.910.49019%0
CGY J. Farabee1.820.44119%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.740.39120%0
COL J. Schwartz1.720.48219%2
COL B. Burns1.720.3217%0
COL D. Toews1.630.4928%2
CGY Z. Parekh1.510.3409%0
COL J. Manson1.420.3205%0
CGY A. Suniev1.410.27012%0
CGY S. Nemec1.410.3209%0
COL Z. L'Heureux1.420.22111%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.320.2408%0
CGY R. Strome1.300.39113%0
COL P. Kelly1.320.34114%0
CGY S. Honzek1.210.20012%0
COL F. Svechkov1.100.30111%0
COL N. Roy1.100.33013%0
COL B. Kulak1.100.2024%0
CGY A. Klapka1.110.22110%1
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.020.1805%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud0.910.2204%0
CGY J. Middleton0.810.1904%0
CGY K. Bahl0.610.1913%1

Shots on goal: 23 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.