Game Recap: COL 1, CHI 3, January 8, 2025

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Game Recap

COL1

FinalWed, Jan 8, 2025Every game that night

CHI3

CHI beat COL 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.95 expected goals to 2.61. COL outshot CHI 36 to 20. C. Bedard led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Toews had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. P. Mrazek stopped 35 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	1	0	0	1
CHI	1	1	1	3

1st 6:14COLJ. Parssinen0.04 xG
1st 16:48CHII. Mikheyev0.14 xG
2nd 10:17CHIF. Nazar0.30 xG
3rd 11:54CHIC. Bedard0.09 xG

Team Stats

COLCHI

36Shots on goal20

2.61Expected goals1.95

56Shot attempts46

325v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play0/1

11Hits9

14Blocked shots9

2Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways13

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.61 xGCHI 1.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL35 on goal, 1 scored

CHI20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Parssinen	C	1	1	3	2	0	+1	2	14:35	0:42
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	27:19	3:21
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	27:10	3:37
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	5	0	2	-1	0	26:24	3:18
R. Colton	C	0	0	4	2	1	-1	0	18:15	0:23
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	17:34	3:19
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:51	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	12:43	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	12:28	0:00
J. Innala	LW	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:00	0:41
T. Felhaber	LW	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	4:26	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	29:34	2:58
D. Toews	D	0	0	5	0	1	-1	0	27:43	1:02
S. Girard	D	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	18:21	0:39
J. Manson	D	0	0	2	3	2	-1	0	16:13	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:34	0:00
C. de Haan	D	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	8:31	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	4:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Miner	20	17	3	.850	56:40	Loss
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	18:48	1:10
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	17:43	1:14
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	2	17:31	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:12	1:14
F. Nazar	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	13:08	0:46
C. Dach	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	11:02	0:46
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:54	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:27	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:03	0:50
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:40	1:12
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	10:18	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	9:24	0:46
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	2	1	4	+2	0	26:12	1:25
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	26:21	0:35
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	19:36	0:02
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	0	18:44	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:44	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	36	35	1	.972	59:45	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.7, CHI 2.6	COL 1, CHI 3
Total goals	6.4	4
Shots on goal	COL 31.5, CHI 25.9	COL 36, CHI 20
Win chance	COL 66%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	2	1.67	0	42%	0
COL M. Rantanen	3.1	0	1.40	0	44%	0
COL C. Makar	3.0	0	1.23	0	23%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	2	0.88	2	25%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.3	5	0.81	0	33%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.1	0	0.48	0	19%	0
COL R. Colton	2.0	4	0.56	0	25%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.0	2	0.46	1	9%	0
CHI T. Hall	1.9	1	0.61	0	22%	0
COL D. Toews	1.9	5	0.70	0	12%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	1	0.62	1	25%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	2	0.42	1	20%	1
CHI C. Smith	1.7	1	0.32	0	15%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.6	0	0.47	0	19%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	0	0.61	1	21%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	2	0.36	0	8%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.5	2	0.70	0	20%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.4	0	0.40	0	18%	0
COL S. Girard	1.3	3	0.44	0	6%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	1	0.28	0	12%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.3	1	0.30	0	4%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.3	1	0.28	0	14%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.2	2	0.35	0	14%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.2	1	0.32	0	12%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	2	0.21	0	5%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	4	0.19	0	3%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.0	3	0.28	1	13%	1
COL C. Haan	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.9	0	0.15	0	4%	0
COL J. Parssinen	0.8	3	0.28	1	11%	1
COL K. Middleton	0.7	1	0.06	0	2%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	0	0.24	0	3%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.4	0	0.20	0	4%	0
COL J. Innala	0.4	2	0.12	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.