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Game Recap
COL3
CHI2
COL beat CHI 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.49 expected goals to 2.36. COL outshot CHI 31 to 23. C. Makar led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Wedgewood stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| CHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 14:39CHII. MikheyevSH0.20 xG
- 2nd 8:17CHIC. Murphy0.07 xG
- 3rd 9:17COLC. Makar0.09 xG
- 3rd 19:49COLM. Necas0.09 xG
Team Stats
COLCHI
31Shots on goal23
4.49Expected goals2.36
76Shot attempts48
215v5 shots on goal16
0/4Power play0/3
25Hits19
14Blocked shots16
6Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways22
4Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 4.49 xGCHI 2.36 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 28:18 | 7:02 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 23:27 | 7:01 |
| M. Necas | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:35 | 6:59 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:52 | 5:09 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 20:21 | 1:01 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:56 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:57 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 1:01 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 10:51 | 0:38 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:16 | 1:57 |
| C. Makar | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 31:03 | 6:53 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 26:36 | 1:09 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:14 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 64:01 | Win |
| K. Mandolese | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:58 | 4:26 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:17 | 2:09 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:14 | 0:21 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:40 | 4:15 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 3:45 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:52 | 0:23 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:13 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:03 | 2:52 |
| O. Moore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:37 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 12:01 | 1:07 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:59 | 1:07 |
| C. Murphy | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 22:04 | 0:24 |
| E. Del Mastro | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:01 | 0:46 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:45 | 1:58 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:37 | 2:59 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:57 | 2:38 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 31 | 29 | 2 | .935 | 64:42 | OT loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.8, CHI 2.5 | COL 3, CHI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | COL 31.7, CHI 23.4 | COL 31, CHI 23 |
| Win chance | COL 70% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.1 | 6 | 1.54 | 1 | 40% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.9 | 4 | 1.18 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.9 | 4 | 0.95 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.7 | 4 | 0.96 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.5 | 1 | 0.75 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.3 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.3 | 0 | 0.79 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.0 | 3 | 0.75 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.9 | 4 | 0.46 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.8 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.6 | 0 | 0.86 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.5 | 0 | 0.70 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL C. Coyle | 1.2 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.1 | 3 | 0.20 | 2 | 5% | 1 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL E. Johnson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.0 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI J. Veleno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI E. Mastro | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.