Game Recap: COL 1, CHI 0, November 23, 2025

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Game Recap

COL1

FinalSun, Nov 23, 2025Every game that night

CHI0

COL beat CHI 1-0, with the chances close: 2.80 expected goals to 2.44. R. Greene had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. S. Wedgewood stopped 22 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	1	0	1
CHI	0	0	0	0

2nd 18:21COLC. Makar0.09 xG

Team Stats

COLCHI

26Shots on goal22

2.80Expected goals2.44

55Shot attempts53

235v5 shots on goal18

0/3Power play0/2

29Hits20

14Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes6

12Giveaways16

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.80 xGCHI 2.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL25 on goal, 1 scored

CHI22 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Nielsen	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	6:52	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	24:29	3:36
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	22:48	3:23
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	21:35	3:36
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:52	3:24
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	17:55	2:29
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	4	7	1	0	0	16:00	2:35
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:53	2:27
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	13:34	0:02
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:10	2:20
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	6:34	0:02
J. Polin	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	0	5:03	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	0	1	3	0	3	+1	0	27:00	3:45
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	22:30	2:01
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	19:40	0:16
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	6	0	0	2	15:29	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	15:10	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	14:26	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	22	22	0	1.000	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Bertuzzi	LW	2	1	0	0	0	21:58	2:36
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	0	0	21:54	2:35
R. Donato	C	4	1	0	0	0	20:25	1:49
F. Nazar	C	3	0	1	-1	0	19:59	2:35
T. Teravainen	C	1	0	1	0	0	18:49	2:10
R. Greene	C	4	0	0	0	0	18:47	1:12
I. Mikheyev	RW	2	0	0	0	0	16:56	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	1	5	1	0	2	16:23	0:13
O. Moore	C	0	2	0	0	0	12:14	1:11
C. Dach	C	0	4	0	-1	0	8:26	1:25
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	-1	0	6:43	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	1	0	0	0	0	20:31	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	1	1	2	0	0	20:10	2:20
A. Vlasic	D	1	1	2	0	0	19:07	0:13
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	1	1	-1	0	14:55	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	1	3	0	2	14:15	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	1	0	-1	0	12:53	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	1	2	0	0	2	12:03	1:41

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	26	25	1	.962	57:32	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon18:38M. Necas17:59A. Lehkonen16:28

Line 2B. Nelson14:18G. Landeskog13:03R. Colton11:48

Line 3P. Kelly10:59J. Drury10:55V. Olofsson9:50

Line 4Z. Bardakov6:32T. Nielsen6:52J. Polin5:03

Pair 1C. Makar19:18D. Toews17:57

Pair 2B. Burns15:51J. Manson14:30

Pair 3S. Girard14:08S. Malinski13:31

CHI

Line 1T. Bertuzzi16:54C. Bedard16:47R. Greene14:50

Line 2R. Donato16:08I. Mikheyev13:30J. Dickinson13:59

Line 3T. Teravainen11:41F. Nazar14:45O. Moore10:10

Line 4S. Lafferty6:43C. Dach7:01

Pair 1A. Vlasic15:43L. Crevier12:30

Pair 2W. Kaiser17:40A. Levshunov15:22

Pair 3C. Murphy9:28M. Grzelcyk14:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayGabriel Landeskog COL Turns 33 that day2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.7, CHI 2.7	COL 1, CHI 0
Total goals	6.4	1
Shots on goal	COL 32.6, CHI 24.2	COL 26, CHI 22
Win chance	COL 64%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	4	1.46	0	41%	0
COL C. Makar	3.0	3	1.19	1	28%	1
COL M. Necas	2.6	0	1.01	0	31%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.6	1	0.88	0	28%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.6	4	0.80	0	32%	0
COL V. Olofsson	2.2	0	0.57	0	24%	0
COL R. Colton	2.1	4	0.49	0	21%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.1	0	0.70	0	29%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.0	3	0.62	0	23%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	2	0.65	0	28%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.9	2	0.64	0	25%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.8	4	0.52	0	23%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	2	0.44	0	23%	0
COL B. Burns	1.8	1	0.39	0	9%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.6	2	0.29	0	6%	0
COL J. Drury	1.6	0	0.36	0	13%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	1	0.72	0	24%	0
COL D. Toews	1.5	2	0.55	0	11%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	1	0.30	0	8%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	1	0.27	0	11%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.3	0	0.43	0	14%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.2	1	0.27	0	4%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.2	0	0.23	0	11%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.1	4	0.38	0	17%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	0	0.29	0	5%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.0	1	0.28	0	14%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.0	1	0.38	0	3%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.9	0	0.26	0	2%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.9	1	0.17	0	4%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.9	1	0.22	0	3%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.9	0	0.22	0	5%	0
COL J. Polin	0.8	0	0.13	0	8%	0
CHI C. Murphy	0.8	0	0.15	0	3%	0
CHI S. Lafferty	0.8	0	0.17	0	10%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.7	0	0.22	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.