Game Recap: COL 4, CHI 1, March 20, 2026

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Game Recap

COL4

FinalFri, Mar 20, 2026Every game that night

CHI1

COL beat CHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.37 expected goals to 2.35. COL outshot CHI 49 to 20. M. Necas led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). J. Kiviranta had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. M. Blackwood stopped 19 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	2	0	2	4
CHI	0	1	0	1

1st 13:19COLM. Necas0.12 xG
1st 15:22COLB. NelsonPP0.08 xG
2nd 6:48CHIW. Kaiser0.23 xG
3rd 0:36COLN. KadriPP0.06 xG
3rd 8:34COLV. Nichushkin0.23 xG

Team Stats

COLCHI

49Shots on goal20

4.37Expected goals2.35

87Shot attempts40

435v5 shots on goal18

2/5Power play0/3

19Hits19

6Blocked shots21

6Penalty minutes10

14Giveaways15

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.37 xGCHI 2.35 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL49 on goal, 4 scored

CHI18 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	3	3	4	3	0	+1	0	22:12	4:29
M. Necas	C	1	2	3	5	1	1	+1	0	20:40	4:30
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	16:52	1:09
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	5	0	1	0	2	17:54	4:36
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	17:37	4:30
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	14:08	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	13:02	0:53
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	12:58	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:29	1:10
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	12:07	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:52	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:09	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	23:54	4:36
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	4	1	1	+1	0	19:51	0:16
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	19:38	1:03
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:10	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	17:50	0:53
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	16:18	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	20	19	1	.950	59:19	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Greene	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	19:42	1:59
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0	19:04	2:47
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	18:38	2:46
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	17:13	2:14
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	16:25	2:15
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:00	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	15:02	1:52
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:46	1:28
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	2	11:32	1:27
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:29	0:00
D. Toninato	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	9:21	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	9:06	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	21:38	0:08
S. Rinzel	D	0	1	1	1	1	3	0	2	19:40	1:16
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	-1	4	21:23	2:58
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:59	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	0	19:11	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	14:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	49	45	4	.918	60:00	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon15:38M. Necas14:18V. Nichushkin12:47

Line 2P. Kelly12:28J. Drury12:03J. Kiviranta10:29

Line 3N. Kadri12:37B. Nelson12:10N. Roy11:04

Line 4Z. Bardakov9:43G. Brindley10:39I. Ivan9:03

Pair 1D. Toews16:34S. Malinski17:26

Pair 2B. Burns15:37J. Manson14:23

Pair 3B. Kulak15:56C. Makar15:25

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky13:10C. Bedard14:33R. Greene13:27

Line 2T. Bertuzzi14:10F. Nazar14:11N. Lardis10:37

Line 3R. Donato10:05I. Mikheyev12:08T. Teravainen13:12

Line 4D. Toninato8:40S. Lafferty8:25L. Slaggert9:58

Pair 1W. Kaiser17:37S. Rinzel16:55

Pair 2A. Vlasic15:27A. Levshunov16:17

Pair 3M. Grzelcyk16:15E. Mastro13:13

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.8, CHI 2.3	COL 4, CHI 1
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	COL 32.6, CHI 22.6	COL 49, CHI 20
Win chance	COL 72%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.5	4	1.63	3	44%	0
COL N. Kadri	3.2	3	0.88	1	31%	1
COL M. Necas	3.1	5	1.27	3	36%	1
CHI C. Bedard	3.0	1	0.89	0	29%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.9	5	1.00	1	39%	1
COL C. Makar	2.6	4	1.11	1	29%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.5	1	0.77	2	33%	1
CHI F. Nazar	2.1	1	0.61	0	21%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	2	0.63	0	27%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.8	4	0.38	0	7%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	1	0.52	0	12%	0
COL B. Burns	1.6	4	0.38	0	11%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.6	1	0.31	1	5%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.6	1	0.38	0	19%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.5	0	0.35	1	15%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	1	0.37	0	9%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.4	3	0.41	0	19%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	2	0.56	0	20%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.3	2	0.44	0	16%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	3	0.35	0	15%	0
COL J. Drury	1.2	4	0.33	0	13%	0
COL N. Roy	1.2	3	0.39	0	16%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.1	2	0.36	0	4%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	4	0.26	0	12%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.1	1	0.23	0	5%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.0	1	0.22	0	12%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.9	1	0.22	0	3%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.9	3	0.18	1	5%	1
COL G. Brindley	0.9	2	0.21	0	9%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.8	0	0.19	0	1%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.7	0	0.13	0	6%	0
CHI D. Toninato	0.7	0	0.17	0	7%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.5	0	0.12	0	3%	0
CHI S. Lafferty	0.5	0	0.12	0	7%	0
COL I. Ivan	0.5	0	0.13	0	7%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.5	0	0.15	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.