Game Recap: COL 5, DET 0, January 31, 2026

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Game Recap

COL5

FinalSat, Jan 31, 2026Every game that night

DET0

COL beat DET 5-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.70 expected goals to 2.55. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Blackwood stopped 28 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	2	2	1	5
DET	0	0	0	0

1st 6:44COLB. Burns0.06 xG
1st 10:03COLN. MacKinnon0.03 xG
2nd 1:24COLR. Colton0.26 xG
2nd 13:33COLN. MacKinnon0.17 xG
3rd 7:35COLP. Kelly0.08 xG

Team Stats

COLDET

21Shots on goal28

3.70Expected goals2.55

59Shot attempts56

165v5 shots on goal23

0/2Power play0/2

12Hits16

13Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways13

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.70 xGDET 2.55 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL19 on goal, 5 scored

DET27 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	2	1	3	4	0	2	+3	0	21:36	4:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	2	2	1	0	0	+3	0	18:41	3:32
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+3	0	22:57	4:00
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	19:38	4:00
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:38	0:00
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	14:56	0:28
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	2	14:20	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+1	0	13:35	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	12:32	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:14	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:07	0:00
T. Makar	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:01	0:00
B. Burns	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	0	20:52	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	2	19:48	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+3	0	26:30	4:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	+4	0	20:44	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	18:56	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	28	28	0	1.000	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Larkin	C	4	0	0	-2	0	19:11	2:07
A. Copp	C	0	0	1	-1	0	17:25	1:52
P. Kane	RW	2	0	0	-1	0	17:00	2:10
A. DeBrincat	RW	3	1	0	-1	0	16:34	2:15
L. Raymond	LW	3	0	0	-2	0	15:44	2:07
M. Kasper	C	2	0	0	-2	0	14:33	1:33
J. Compher	LW	1	1	0	-2	4	13:54	0:02
M. Appleton	C	1	1	1	-2	0	13:46	0:02
E. Finnie	C	0	1	1	-2	0	13:03	0:02
M. Rasmussen	C	3	0	1	0	0	12:26	0:00
J. van Riemsdyk	LW	2	0	0	0	0	11:07	1:44
E. Soderblom	LW	1	7	2	0	0	10:56	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	2	1	-2	0	24:26	1:44
A. Johansson	D	1	1	3	-2	0	21:44	0:22
E. Gustafsson	D	1	1	0	-1	2	20:06	2:16
J. Bernard-Docker	D	2	0	1	-2	0	17:44	0:00
A. Sandin-Pellikka	D	0	0	1	-1	0	17:25	1:44
B. Chiarot	D	2	1	2	-2	0	16:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	17	13	4	.765	40:00	Loss
C. Talbot	4	3	1	.750	20:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon16:28V. Nichushkin16:46A. Lehkonen12:37

Line 2P. Kelly13:06J. Kiviranta12:12J. Drury13:16

Line 3V. Olofsson12:32R. Colton14:28B. Nelson14:28

Line 4Z. Bardakov8:14G. Brindley8:07T. Makar8:01

Pair 1C. Makar19:11S. Malinski18:54

Pair 2B. Burns18:01J. Manson18:09

Pair 3K. Middleton8:55S. Girard16:35

DET

Line 1P. Kane14:02A. Copp13:38A. DeBrincat13:20

Line 2J. Compher12:56M. Appleton12:49E. Finnie11:47

Line 3M. Kasper12:23L. Raymond12:56D. Larkin14:44

Line 4J. Riemsdyk9:23E. Soderblom10:56M. Rasmussen10:52

Pair 1M. Seider19:57A. Johansson18:49

Pair 2E. Gustafsson16:28A. Sandin-Pellikka14:43

Pair 3B. Chiarot14:38J. Bernard-Docker15:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.8, DET 3.1	COL 5, DET 0
Total goals	6.9	5
Shots on goal	COL 32.4, DET 27.2	COL 21, DET 28
Win chance	COL 61%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	4	1.49	3	42%	2
DET A. DeBrincat	3.4	3	0.87	0	34%	0
DET D. Larkin	2.8	4	0.82	0	33%	0
COL C. Makar	2.8	1	1.06	0	25%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.4	1	0.88	1	35%	0
DET P. Kane	2.4	2	0.73	0	23%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.2	2	0.41	0	7%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.1	1	0.63	1	28%	0
COL R. Colton	2.1	3	0.43	1	18%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.1	1	0.62	2	27%	0
COL V. Olofsson	2.0	2	0.55	0	24%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.0	3	0.81	0	25%	0
COL B. Burns	2.0	1	0.43	1	10%	1
DET M. Seider	1.9	0	0.56	0	8%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.8	2	0.36	0	17%	0
COL J. Manson	1.7	1	0.39	1	8%	0
DET A. Copp	1.6	0	0.55	0	18%	0
DET J. Riemsdyk	1.5	2	0.46	0	18%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	1	0.30	1	13%	1
COL J. Drury	1.3	0	0.34	1	13%	0
DET E. Soderblom	1.2	1	0.22	0	12%	0
DET J. Compher	1.2	1	0.37	0	15%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.2	3	0.28	0	13%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.1	2	0.20	0	5%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.1	1	0.28	0	12%	0
DET M. Appleton	1.1	1	0.26	0	11%	0
COL K. Middleton	1.0	0	0.10	0	2%	0
COL S. Girard	1.0	0	0.31	0	5%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	1.0	1	0.29	0	4%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.0	0	0.20	0	10%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	2	0.19	1	9%	0
DET A. Sandin-Pellikka	0.8	0	0.23	0	5%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	1	0.15	0	3%	0
COL T. Makar	0.7	0	0.09	0	6%	0
DET J. Bernard-Docker	0.7	2	0.16	0	3%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.6	0	0.21	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.