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Game Recap
COL5
EDM4
COL beat EDM 5-4, with the chances close: 3.79 expected goals to 3.54. N. MacKinnon led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). C. Makar had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. M. Blackwood stopped 23 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| EDM | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 9:48COLN. MacKinnonPP0.10 xG
- 1st 10:39EDML. DraisaitlPP0.16 xG
- 1st 11:46COLC. Makar0.05 xG
- 1st 12:22EDMC. Perry0.05 xG
- 1st 18:08COLA. Lehkonen0.20 xG
- 2nd 6:39COLC. MakarSH0.21 xG
- 2nd 7:48EDMC. PerryPP0.47 xG
- 2nd 15:59EDML. Draisaitl0.53 xG
- 3rd 15:38COLM. Necas0.36 xG
Team Stats
COLEDM
31Shots on goal27
3.79Expected goals3.54
56Shot attempts61
235v5 shots on goal18
1/5Power play2/4
15Hits9
19Blocked shots12
10Penalty minutes12
11Giveaways17
3Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 3.79 xGEDM 3.54 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 22:18 | 5:53 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 24:47 | 5:53 |
| M. Necas | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 23:54 | 5:58 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 2 | 12:43 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 16:26 | 1:04 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 5:53 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:36 | 1:08 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:52 | 0:00 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:34 | 1:08 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6:43 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 29:11 | 6:12 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 26:30 | 0:49 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:23 | 1:07 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:51 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 60:00 | Win |
| T. Miner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Draisaitl | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:33 | 3:59 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:43 | 4:07 |
| C. Perry | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 10:38 | 1:45 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:10 | 1:56 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 1:44 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:00 |
| C. McDavid | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 24:04 | 4:00 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 19:01 | 4:10 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:16 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:45 | 1:30 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 22:32 | 4:19 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 24:28 | 1:59 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Klingberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:06 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 12 | 9 | 3 | .750 | 20:00 | |
| C. Pickard | 19 | 17 | 2 | .895 | 38:02 | Loss |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 2.7, EDM 3.4 | COL 5, EDM 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | COL 26.6, EDM 31.6 | COL 31, EDM 27 |
| Win chance | EDM 61% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.8 | 7 | 1.21 | 4 | 34% | 1 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.5 | 3 | 1.54 | 2 | 47% | 2 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.4 | 5 | 1.74 | 0 | 42% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.2 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.9 | 3 | 0.84 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.8 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.6 | 6 | 0.86 | 3 | 22% | 2 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.5 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.2 | 4 | 0.65 | 2 | 29% | 1 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.0 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.0 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.0 | 0 | 0.78 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.8 | 2 | 0.48 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.5 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL M. Wood | 1.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.4 | 3 | 0.39 | 2 | 18% | 2 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.4 | 0 | 0.44 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.3 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM J. Klingberg | 1.3 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.2 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 0.9 | 1 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.7 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| COL J. Parssinen | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.