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Game Recap
COL9
FinalSat, Nov 8, 2025Every game that night
EDM1

COL beat EDM 9-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.62 expected goals to 2.22. COL outshot EDM 34 to 24. N. MacKinnon led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). P. Kelly had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. S. Wedgewood stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
COL2439
EDM0101
  1. 1st 13:29COLC. Makar0.03 xG
  2. 1st 14:35COLC. Makar0.03 xG
  3. 2nd 2:38COLG. Brindley0.09 xG
  4. 2nd 4:45COLJ. Drury0.08 xG
  5. 2nd 9:34COLP. Kelly0.13 xG
  6. 2nd 11:30EDMC. McDavidPP0.13 xG
  7. 2nd 14:38COLP. KellySH0.18 xG
  8. 3rd 0:24COLN. MacKinnon0.21 xG
  9. 3rd 5:02COLN. MacKinnon0.04 xG
  10. 3rd 14:28COLJ. Drury0.16 xG

Team Stats

COLEDM
34Shots on goal24
4.62Expected goals2.22
59Shot attempts50
225v5 shots on goal16
0/7Power play1/5
7Hits13
14Blocked shots16
10Penalty minutes14
23Giveaways9
4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.62 xGEDM 2.22 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdCOL goal, 13:29COL goal, 14:35COL goal, 2:38COL goal, 4:45COL goal, 9:34EDM goal, 11:30COL goal, 14:38COL goal, 0:24COL goal, 5:02COL goal, 14:28

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL34 on goal, 9 scored
EDM22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. MacKinnonC224610+4219:467:52
P. KellyC213400+4010:320:15
J. DruryC202400+3015:450:18
R. ColtonC022310+2012:130:16
G. BrindleyC112200+2210:153:51
Z. BardakovC022111+206:360:00
V. OlofssonLW011100+1019:557:30
A. LehkonenLW011500+3016:443:37
V. NichushkinRW0001210020:547:47
M. NecasC000100+4219:558:25
B. NelsonC000101+1016:553:54
G. LandeskogLW0000010213:202:32
D. ToewsD033002+3017:122:40
C. MakarD202402+3023:308:34
B. BurnsD011004+2020:420:35
S. MalinskiD011101+4016:070:40
J. MansonD000021+2217:330:06
J. AhcanD000000+4013:590:18
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Wedgewood24231.95860:00Win
M. Blackwood000–0:00

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC101401-3219:104:32
L. DraisaitlC011100-3018:374:36
J. RoslovicC000200-3216:294:38
R. Nugent-HopkinsC000000-4014:504:04
N. PhilpC000221-1014:480:00
M. SavoieC000000-1014:421:59
V. PodkolzinRW000220-2214:270:00
A. HenriqueC000112-4014:141:55
A. MangiapaneLW000111-3011:440:00
I. HowardLW000000-1011:311:59
T. FredericC000110-2010:590:00
D. TomasekRW000001-2010:441:58
E. BouchardD000500-3027:584:54
M. EkholmD000401-3021:570:00
D. NurseD000024-2218:140:04
B. KulakD000101-4017:100:00
J. WalmanD000021-3615:052:06
A. RegulaD000023-1013:460:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Skinner1394.69227:28Loss
C. Pickard21165.76232:07

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1V. Olofsson12:25J. Drury12:06G. Landeskog10:48
Line 2N. MacKinnon11:02M. Necas10:52A. Lehkonen11:08
Line 3B. Nelson10:11R. Colton10:57V. Nichushkin9:38
Line 4P. Kelly6:56G. Brindley6:24Z. Bardakov6:36
Pair 1B. Burns16:23J. Manson14:37
Pair 2J. Ahcan13:41S. Malinski12:39
Pair 3D. Toews9:48C. Makar11:59

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl11:41C. McDavid12:08J. Roslovic11:41
Line 2I. Howard9:32D. Tomasek8:46M. Savoie8:40
Line 3T. Frederic10:59N. Philp10:01V. Podkolzin9:53
Line 4R. Nugent-Hopkins7:50A. Mangiapane10:18A. Henrique7:14
Pair 1M. Ekholm14:58E. Bouchard16:10
Pair 2D. Nurse13:26A. Regula11:44
Pair 3B. Kulak13:22J. Walman9:47

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCOL 3.3, EDM 3.1COL 9, EDM 1
Total goals6.410
Shots on goalCOL 29.1, EDM 28.1COL 34, EDM 24
Win chanceCOL 53%COL won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon3.961.34437%2
EDM C. McDavid3.141.53137%1
EDM L. Draisaitl2.811.30144%0
COL C. Makar2.540.97224%2
COL V. Nichushkin2.510.76032%0
COL M. Necas2.510.92028%0
EDM E. Bouchard2.450.80015%0
COL A. Lehkonen2.150.67128%0
EDM J. Roslovic2.120.56021%0
COL B. Nelson2.010.69029%0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins2.000.77024%0
COL V. Olofsson1.910.53122%0
EDM D. Nurse1.800.3608%0
EDM J. Walman1.700.4209%0
COL B. Burns1.700.3318%0
COL G. Landeskog1.600.57022%0
COL R. Colton1.630.38217%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.640.4008%0
EDM V. Podkolzin1.520.37014%0
COL J. Drury1.440.31211%2
COL J. Manson1.400.2808%0
EDM D. Tomasek1.400.29012%0
EDM A. Mangiapane1.410.42020%0
COL D. Toews1.300.46310%0
EDM A. Henrique1.310.37018%0
COL S. Malinski1.310.2116%0
EDM T. Frederic1.210.27015%0
EDM M. Savoie1.200.17010%0
COL P. Kelly1.140.2239%2
EDM B. Kulak1.110.2104%0
EDM I. Howard1.000.22011%0
EDM N. Philp0.920.2009%0
EDM A. Regula0.900.1004%0
COL G. Brindley0.820.1828%1
COL Z. Bardakov0.610.1727%0
COL J. Ahcan0.500.1204%0

Shots on goal: 13 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.