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Game Recap
COL2
EDM1
COL beat EDM 2-1 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 5.32 expected goals to 2.29. S. Wedgewood stopped 30 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| EDM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 2nd 9:05COLS. Malinski0.11 xG
- 2nd 15:49EDMC. McDavid0.03 xG
Team Stats
COLEDM
32Shots on goal31
5.32Expected goals2.29
83Shot attempts63
265v5 shots on goal23
0/4Power play0/3
12Hits22
15Blocked shots26
6Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways12
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 5.32 xGEDM 2.29 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:06 | 3:41 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29:08 | 7:56 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:57 | 7:48 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:24 | 7:22 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 19:11 | 2:19 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:10 | 0:38 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:11 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:03 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:45 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bardakov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:51 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 23:55 | 0:13 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 31:21 | 7:32 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:40 | 0:28 |
| J. Ahcan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 31 | 30 | 1 | .968 | 64:59 | Win |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27:55 | 4:29 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:19 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 21:50 | 4:29 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:15 | 4:10 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:21 | 4:29 |
| T. Frederic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Samanski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:47 | 0:07 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:51 | 0:07 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| I. Howard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:56 | 0:00 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:19 | 0:07 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 30:31 | 4:29 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 22:21 | 0:07 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:07 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
COL
Line 1N. MacKinnon18:49M. Necas19:24G. Landeskog15:42
Line 2B. Nelson14:33V. Nichushkin12:22R. Colton12:43
Line 3P. Kelly11:55N. Roy10:25J. Kiviranta7:32
Line 4L. O'Connor8:38J. Drury8:39Z. Bardakov6:51
Pair 1S. Malinski21:32D. Toews18:08
Pair 3N. Blankenburg10:14J. Ahcan11:06
EDM
Line 1C. McDavid19:42M. Savoie16:02V. Podkolzin14:25
Line 2T. Frederic13:23C. Dach11:50J. Samanski10:31
Line 3R. Nugent-Hopkins13:31J. Roslovic12:21I. Howard9:56
Line 4A. Henrique9:57K. Kapanen8:28C. Lazar7:12
Pair 2M. Ekholm18:18E. Bouchard20:35
Pair 3J. Walman12:47T. Emberson10:22
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.6, EDM 3.2 | COL 2, EDM 1 |
| Total goals | 6.8 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | COL 30.3, EDM 28.2 | COL 32, EDM 31 |
| Win chance | COL 56% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.9 | 2 | 1.48 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.4 | 5 | 1.44 | 1 | 38% | 1 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.6 | 3 | 1.12 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.3 | 0 | 0.82 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.2 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.0 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 1.9 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.9 | 4 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 1 | 0.70 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.8 | 4 | 0.44 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.7 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 1.7 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.7 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.5 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 1.4 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| EDM I. Howard | 1.2 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM T. Frederic | 1.2 | 3 | 0.21 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL B. Kulak | 1.2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.1 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL N. Roy | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM C. Murphy | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 0.9 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM C. Dach | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL N. Blankenburg | 0.7 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM C. Lazar | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.5 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| COL J. Ahcan | 0.5 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM J. Samanski | 0.5 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL Z. Bardakov | 0.5 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.