Game Recap: COL 7, FLA 4, November 23, 2024

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Game Recap

COL7

FinalSat, Nov 23, 2024Every game that night

FLA4

COL beat FLA 7-4, with the chances close: 3.09 expected goals to 2.96. M. Rantanen led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). A. Georgiev stopped 27 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	1	4	2	7
FLA	2	1	1	4

1st 0:52FLAC. Verhaeghe0.02 xG
1st 9:13COLJ. Drouin0.46 xG
1st 15:44FLAA. Barkov0.63 xG
2nd 0:34COLJ. Drouin0.18 xG
2nd 4:04COLL. O'Connor0.14 xG
2nd 8:54COLS. Girard0.01 xG
2nd 16:58COLM. Rantanen0.14 xG
2nd 18:40FLAS. ReinhartPP0.06 xG
3rd 15:49COLO. Kylington0.17 xG
3rd 17:15COLV. NichushkinEN0.86 xG
3rd 18:17FLAA. Lundell0.19 xG

Team Stats

COLFLA

25Shots on goal31

3.09Expected goals2.96

49Shot attempts66

225v5 shots on goal22

0/1Power play1/4

9Hits31

18Blocked shots14

10Penalty minutes2

20Giveaways12

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.09 xGFLA 2.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL25 on goal, 7 scored

FLA31 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Rantanen	RW	1	3	4	3	0	1	+4	0	15:46	0:07
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	2	3	2	2	0	+3	0	19:07	0:00
J. Drouin	LW	2	0	2	4	0	2	+1	0	23:37	0:11
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+3	0	22:24	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+2	2	20:29	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	9:51	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	5:30	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+2	0	16:14	0:11
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	11:58	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	9:35	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	9:15	0:00
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	7:35	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	2	2	1	0	3	+4	0	23:20	0:01
C. Makar	D	0	2	2	4	0	3	+3	0	22:58	0:11
S. Girard	D	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	19:58	0:00
O. Kylington	D	1	1	2	2	0	0	+2	0	14:40	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	0	19:47	0:10
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	-2	2	19:22	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	31	27	4	.871	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	2	2	5	1	1	-2	2	20:27	3:42
A. Lundell	C	1	1	2	4	1	2	0	0	14:27	0:52
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	2	2	1	0	0	-2	0	13:01	0:00
A. Barkov	C	1	0	1	1	1	1	-1	0	22:19	3:46
S. Reinhart	C	1	0	1	4	1	2	-1	0	22:14	3:45
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	-4	0	15:28	0:48
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	3	5	2	-3	0	19:41	3:02
E. Rodrigues	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:04	0:50
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:13	0:00
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	6:34	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:09	0:00
A. Greer	LW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	5:52	0:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	26:00	3:44
N. Mikkola	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	-3	0	18:31	0:00
U. Balinskis	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	-1	0	15:37	0:47
G. Forsling	D	0	0	0	4	4	1	0	0	23:16	0:00
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	18:51	0:00
A. Boqvist	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:43	0:49

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	24	18	6	.750	59:33	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.0, FLA 3.1	COL 7, FLA 4
Total goals	6.1	11
Shots on goal	COL 28.1, FLA 29.7	COL 25, FLA 31
Win chance	FLA 52%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	2	1.37	1	38%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	3.0	4	0.88	1	34%	1
FLA M. Tkachuk	3.0	5	1.05	2	31%	0
COL C. Makar	2.8	4	1.02	2	21%	0
COL M. Rantanen	2.7	3	1.07	4	37%	1
FLA S. Reinhart	2.7	4	1.05	1	40%	1
FLA S. Bennett	2.5	3	0.70	0	26%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.4	2	0.75	3	31%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.3	0	0.76	1	30%	0
FLA A. Barkov	2.3	1	1.07	1	28%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.0	0	0.56	0	20%	0
FLA A. Lundell	1.9	4	0.59	2	19%	1
FLA G. Forsling	1.8	4	0.49	0	11%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	1	0.52	2	9%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.6	0	0.65	0	19%	0
COL M. Wood	1.6	0	0.25	0	12%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	1.6	1	0.44	1	10%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.5	4	0.68	2	17%	2
COL J. Manson	1.4	2	0.30	0	7%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	2	0.27	0	6%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.2	1	0.29	1	12%	1
FLA U. Balinskis	1.1	1	0.22	1	3%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	1	0.34	2	5%	1
FLA M. Samoskevich	1.1	1	0.25	2	12%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.1	1	0.35	0	13%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	1	0.20	0	9%	0
COL I. Ivan	1.1	0	0.23	1	12%	0
FLA N. Mikkola	1.1	0	0.23	1	4%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	1	0.33	0	14%	0
FLA A. Greer	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	1.0	0	0.28	0	5%	0
COL O. Kylington	1.0	2	0.20	2	5%	1
FLA A. Boqvist	0.9	1	0.28	0	6%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	0.8	0	0.24	0	10%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.6	0	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.