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Game Recap
COL1
FLA2
FLA beat COL 2-1, with the chances close: 2.37 expected goals to 2.63. M. Samoskevich had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. D. Tarasov stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| FLA | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 6:27FLAS. Bennett0.03 xG
- 1st 11:51COLA. Lehkonen0.05 xG
- 2nd 18:12FLAA. Ekblad0.08 xG
Team Stats
COLFLA
28Shots on goal25
2.63Expected goals2.37
60Shot attempts48
215v5 shots on goal21
0/4Power play0/3
15Hits25
8Blocked shots9
6Penalty minutes8
19Giveaways15
4Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 2.63 xGFLA 2.37 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25:15 | 5:30 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:34 | 1:21 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:28 | 5:53 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:12 | 5:56 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:26 | 6:14 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:03 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:49 | 0:03 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:34 | 2:04 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:13 | 1:36 |
| G. Brindley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:31 | 1:43 |
| Z. Bardakov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:40 | 0:00 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5:58 | 0:11 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 29:07 | 6:06 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:57 | 1:35 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20:05 | 0:05 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| I. Solovyov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 25 | 23 | 2 | .920 | 57:12 | Loss |
| T. Miner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bennett | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:25 | 4:28 |
| S. Reinhart | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:29 | 4:27 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:41 | 1:15 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:32 | 4:12 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 4:20 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:58 | 1:01 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 1:11 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:24 | 1:03 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:25 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 6:18 | 0:00 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Studnicka | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:33 | 0:00 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 26:57 | 4:27 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:51 | 0:14 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:11 | 0:30 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:05 | 0:04 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:42 | 1:08 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
COL
Line 1N. MacKinnon14:28M. Necas13:24G. Landeskog5:47
Line 2B. Nelson14:31A. Lehkonen12:58V. Nichushkin13:21
Line 3R. Colton10:37J. Drury10:53V. Olofsson10:27
Line 4P. Kelly9:31Z. Bardakov6:40G. Brindley7:26
Pair 3I. Solovyov9:40S. Malinski12:40
FLA
Line 1A. Lundell13:21E. Luostarinen13:01S. Reinhart13:31
Line 2E. Rodrigues13:37M. Samoskevich12:21A. Greer11:58
Line 3B. Marchand11:40C. Verhaeghe12:32S. Bennett12:28
Line 4J. Boqvist5:52L. Kunin5:56J. Studnicka4:11
Pair 1A. Ekblad16:10G. Forsling18:15
Pair 2N. Mikkola16:36U. Balinskis14:46
Pair 3J. Petry11:34D. Sebrango9:51
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.2, FLA 3.0 | COL 1, FLA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | COL 29.8, FLA 28.7 | COL 28, FLA 25 |
| Win chance | COL 53% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.6 | 5 | 1.29 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.1 | 3 | 0.79 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.9 | 1 | 1.00 | 0 | 41% | 0 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.8 | 4 | 0.91 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.7 | 2 | 0.99 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.4 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.3 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.3 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.2 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.2 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.1 | 0 | 0.88 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.1 | 4 | 0.75 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.0 | 6 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 1.9 | 2 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.7 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.6 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.5 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 2 | 0.32 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.4 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.4 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL V. Olofsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL G. Brindley | 1.1 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL I. Solovyov | 0.8 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Studnicka | 0.8 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.7 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL Z. Bardakov | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.