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Game Recap
COL4
LAK5
LAK beat COL 5-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.81 expected goals to 2.47. A. Laferriere led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Kopitar had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. D. Kuemper stopped 22 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| LAK | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
- 1st 4:03LAKQ. Byfield0.16 xG
- 1st 7:14LAKK. FialaPP0.13 xG
- 1st 10:39COLB. NelsonPP0.11 xG
- 2nd 2:13COLV. Nichushkin0.15 xG
- 2nd 10:57LAKA. Laferriere0.09 xG
- 2nd 16:02LAKA. Kopitar0.17 xG
- 3rd 9:18COLS. Malinski0.03 xG
- 3rd 12:11LAKK. Fiala0.24 xG
- 3rd 17:20COLB. Nelson0.21 xG
Team Stats
COLLAK
26Shots on goal33
2.47Expected goals3.81
54Shot attempts68
215v5 shots on goal29
1/3Power play1/4
22Hits22
23Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes6
10Giveaways10
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 2.47 xGLAK 3.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 18:06 | 3:37 |
| B. Nelson | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:14 | 3:33 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:19 | 3:16 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 3:39 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:37 | 1:06 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:37 | 0:49 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:19 | 0:45 |
| J. Innala | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:00 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:01 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:46 | 3:09 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:30 | 0:43 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:47 | 0:00 |
| J. Ahcan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17:03 | 1:13 |
| W. Aamodt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 33 | 28 | 5 | .848 | 57:55 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q. Byfield | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:28 | 6:00 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:24 | 1:11 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:30 | 6:11 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 | 6:07 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:31 | 6:05 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:16 | 6:12 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:30 | 1:06 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:30 | 1:04 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 15:05 | 1:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:42 | 0:00 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:31 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:52 | 0:00 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 27:15 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:18 | 0:59 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Spence | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Moverare | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| K. Burroughs | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:42 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 26 | 22 | 4 | .846 | 59:58 | Win |
| D. Rittich | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.0, LAK 2.9 | COL 4, LAK 5 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | COL 27.4, LAK 26.6 | COL 26, LAK 33 |
| Win chance | COL 52% | LAK won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK K. Fiala | 2.8 | 4 | 0.79 | 2 | 31% | 2 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.7 | 1 | 0.74 | 2 | 33% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.5 | 3 | 0.73 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.4 | 0 | 0.72 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.4 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.2 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.2 | 5 | 0.40 | 3 | 17% | 1 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.62 | 2 | 27% | 2 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.0 | 1 | 0.67 | 3 | 22% | 1 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.0 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.6 | 1 | 0.69 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.6 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.4 | 4 | 0.20 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.2 | 5 | 0.71 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL C. Coyle | 1.2 | 4 | 0.37 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK V. Gavrikov | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| COL E. Johnson | 1.1 | 3 | 0.12 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK J. Spence | 1.0 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.9 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 0.9 | 1 | 0.07 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Vesey | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL J. Ahcan | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL C. Wagner | 0.8 | 3 | 0.07 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK J. Moverare | 0.5 | 1 | 0.11 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| LAK K. Burroughs | 0.3 | 0 | 0.05 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
| COL J. Innala | 0.3 | 2 | 0.06 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.