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Game Recap
COL4
LAK1
COL beat LAK 4-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.85 expected goals to 2.53. M. Necas led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Wedgewood stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| LAK | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- 2nd 0:48COLM. Necas0.16 xG
- 2nd 7:00COLS. Malinski0.01 xG
- 2nd 14:42COLA. Lehkonen0.05 xG
- 3rd 10:43COLM. NecasPP0.07 xG
- 3rd 15:06LAKK. FialaPP0.10 xG
Team Stats
COLLAK
23Shots on goal25
1.85Expected goals2.53
49Shot attempts66
185v5 shots on goal15
1/6Power play1/4
25Hits33
21Blocked shots14
13Penalty minutes17
17Giveaways19
2Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 1.85 xGLAK 2.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:29 | 6:14 |
| M. Necas | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:12 | 8:07 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 20:47 | 8:04 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:15 | 7:45 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 1:58 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:00 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 2:13 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:17 | 1:29 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:12 | 1:48 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 10:58 | 0:00 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:27 | 0:00 |
| G. Brindley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 7:50 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 23:07 | 7:51 |
| S. Malinski | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:13 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:59 | 2:08 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 2 | 20:10 | 2:17 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:49 | 0:31 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +1 | 7 | 17:38 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 59:53 | Win |
| T. Miner | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 4:17 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 | 4:08 |
| K. Fiala | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:40 | 4:13 |
| P. Danault | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 3:14 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 4:03 |
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:26 | 3:15 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:46 | 4:06 |
| W. Foegele | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:27 | 1:08 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:29 | 3:02 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 7 | 6:13 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:40 | 3:01 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:51 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:03 | 3:15 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 18:29 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kuemper | 23 | 19 | 4 | .826 | 57:26 | Loss |
| A. Forsberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
COL
Line 1N. MacKinnon12:36M. Necas13:05A. Lehkonen13:32
Line 2B. Nelson10:56V. Nichushkin11:01G. Landeskog9:24
Line 3R. Colton9:31J. Drury9:59V. Olofsson8:53
Line 4P. Kelly7:49G. Brindley7:43J. Kiviranta8:10
Pair 2S. Malinski13:06J. Manson13:00
LAK
Line 1A. Kopitar11:01A. Kempe12:04A. Kuzmenko10:02
Line 2K. Fiala12:36A. Laferriere11:19Q. Byfield10:30
Line 3P. Danault11:46W. Foegele11:26T. Moore10:47
Line 4J. Armia7:44A. Turcotte7:09J. Malott6:13
Pair 1D. Doughty13:57M. Anderson14:08
Pair 2B. Dumoulin14:08C. Ceci13:57
Pair 3B. Clarke14:50J. Edmundson12:03
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.2, LAK 3.0 | COL 4, LAK 1 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | COL 29.2, LAK 27.0 | COL 23, LAK 25 |
| Win chance | COL 54% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.1 | 2 | 1.30 | 2 | 36% | 0 |
| LAK K. Fiala | 3.4 | 3 | 0.90 | 1 | 34% | 1 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 3.1 | 2 | 0.93 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.1 | 1 | 0.94 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK W. Foegele | 2.8 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.5 | 3 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.5 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.5 | 3 | 0.81 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.4 | 1 | 0.87 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.4 | 3 | 0.67 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.4 | 4 | 0.79 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.64 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| COL B. Burns | 2.1 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| COL V. Olofsson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| LAK P. Danault | 1.8 | 2 | 0.64 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.7 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.4 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.4 | 1 | 0.85 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.8 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.7 | 0 | 0.09 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.