Game Recap: COL 4, LAK 2, March 2, 2026

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Game Recap

COL4

FinalMon, Mar 2, 2026Every game that night

LAK2

COL beat LAK 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.43 expected goals to 1.29. COL outshot LAK 39 to 21. G. Landeskog led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). N. MacKinnon had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 4.4. M. Blackwood stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	2	0	2	4
LAK	1	1	0	2

1st 4:27COLN. MacKinnon0.22 xG
1st 10:13COLG. Landeskog0.04 xG
1st 17:20LAKB. ClarkePP0.05 xG
2nd 8:32LAKA. Booth0.09 xG
3rd 15:05COLD. Toews0.19 xG
3rd 19:58COLM. NecasEN0.82 xG

Team Stats

COLLAK

39Shots on goal21

4.43Expected goals1.29

79Shot attempts46

365v5 shots on goal20

1/1Power play1/1

13Hits36

11Blocked shots23

4Penalty minutes4

23Giveaways13

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.43 xGLAK 1.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL39 on goal, 4 scored

LAK21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	1	2	3	2	2	1	+3	0	20:25	0:33
G. Landeskog	LW	1	2	3	5	0	0	+3	0	18:44	0:33
N. MacKinnon	C	1	1	2	8	0	1	+3	0	21:07	0:33
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	19:13	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:06	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	16:40	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:03	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:09	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	12:23	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:14	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:30	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3:21	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	5	0	3	+3	0	25:26	0:33
D. Toews	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	0	22:29	0:33
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	18:13	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:07	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	17:23	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	17:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	21	19	2	.905	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Kempe	RW	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	20:52	0:06
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	2	2	2	-1	0	20:08	0:06
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	22:24	0:06
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	0	7	1	-1	0	20:18	0:00
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	17:15	0:06
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	16:11	0:00
T. Ward	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:01	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	11:28	0:00
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:49	0:00
K. Connors	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	10:14	0:00
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	3	6	1	0	0	10:01	0:00
J. Wright	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:42	0:00
B. Clarke	D	1	0	1	2	0	2	-1	4	23:30	0:06
B. Dumoulin	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:02	0:00
A. Booth	D	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	12:18	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	24:24	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-2	0	22:35	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	3	5	-1	0	19:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Forsberg	38	35	3	.921	58:36	Loss
E. Portillo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon18:42M. Necas18:15G. Landeskog17:29

Line 2B. Nelson17:52V. Nichushkin17:44V. Olofsson14:09

Line 3P. Kelly16:13J. Drury15:47Z. Bardakov9:14

Pair 1C. Makar23:22D. Toews20:26

Pair 2B. Burns17:09J. Manson16:33

Pair 3B. Kulak16:33S. Malinski18:18

LAK

Line 1A. Kempe18:34A. Panarin20:15A. Kopitar17:56

Line 2W. Foegele15:33A. Laferriere17:33C. Perry16:05

Line 3T. Ward11:43S. Helenius11:28J. Malott10:01

Line 4K. Connors10:14J. Wright9:42A. Turcotte10:49

Pair 1C. Ceci22:24M. Anderson21:20

Pair 2B. Clarke22:27J. Edmundson18:19

Pair 3B. Dumoulin14:19A. Booth12:18

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.4, LAK 2.7	COL 4, LAK 2
Total goals	6.1	6
Shots on goal	COL 31.2, LAK 26.4	COL 39, LAK 21
Win chance	COL 61%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.4	8	1.53	2	41%	1
LAK A. Panarin	3.0	1	1.06	0	33%	0
LAK A. Kempe	2.7	3	0.81	1	32%	0
COL M. Necas	2.7	2	1.08	3	30%	1
COL B. Nelson	2.6	2	0.91	0	35%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.5	0	0.48	0	21%	0
COL C. Makar	2.5	5	0.94	1	22%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.4	5	0.79	3	28%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.2	1	0.69	0	28%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.1	1	0.38	0	19%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.0	1	0.61	0	25%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.0	2	0.49	1	9%	1
COL R. Colton	1.9	2	0.37	0	15%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.7	0	0.31	0	5%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.7	1	0.50	0	22%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	3	0.33	1	8%	0
COL D. Toews	1.5	1	0.43	1	9%	1
COL V. Olofsson	1.5	3	0.36	0	17%	0
LAK T. Ward	1.5	0	0.26	0	13%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	1	0.33	0	7%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.4	1	0.30	0	11%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	1	0.31	0	13%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	2	0.32	0	12%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.2	2	0.60	1	20%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.1	2	0.19	0	4%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.1	0	0.20	0	3%	0
LAK J. Malott	1.0	3	0.18	0	8%	0
COL G. Brindley	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	1	0.18	0	3%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.8	0	0.20	1	3%	0
LAK M. Anderson	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.8	1	0.18	0	10%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.5	0	0.16	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.