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Game Recap
COL4
LAK2
COL beat LAK 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.07 expected goals to 2.28. A. Lehkonen led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Laferriere had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. S. Wedgewood stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| LAK | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 5:29COLG. Landeskog0.02 xG
- 2nd 5:55LAKT. Moore0.14 xG
- 2nd 12:12COLC. Makar0.04 xG
- 3rd 7:39COLA. LehkonenSH0.04 xG
- 3rd 15:57LAKA. KempePP0.14 xG
- 3rd 17:42COLB. NelsonEN0.75 xG
Team Stats
COLLAK
23Shots on goal26
3.07Expected goals2.28
56Shot attempts57
185v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play1/4
24Hits32
15Blocked shots15
10Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways12
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 3.07 xGLAK 2.28 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:07 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:13 | 3:01 |
| B. Nelson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:47 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:56 | 1:11 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:30 | 3:06 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 3:11 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:29 | 0:58 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:07 | 1:48 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:23 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:31 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:26 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:22 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 26:54 | 0:56 |
| C. Makar | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 | +2 | 0 | 25:58 | 3:07 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4:57 | 0:00 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:48 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:21 | 4:11 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 21:33 | 5:16 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 20:57 | 2:51 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 19:08 | 4:04 |
| T. Moore | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:06 | 1:50 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 17:32 | 3:57 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:51 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 2:06 |
| J. Wright | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:39 | 0:00 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:55 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:51 | 2:04 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 19:46 | 3:55 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:35 | 0:19 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:11 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 22 | 19 | 3 | .864 | 57:56 | Loss |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
COL
Line 1M. Necas13:16N. MacKinnon15:24A. Lehkonen14:31
Line 2N. Kadri11:55N. Roy12:40G. Landeskog14:10
Line 3B. Nelson12:37V. Nichushkin11:36R. Colton8:22
Line 4J. Drury7:27L. O'Connor8:29P. Kelly6:46
Pair 2B. Kulak18:30S. Malinski16:33
LAK
Line 1Q. Byfield15:55A. Laferriere15:27T. Moore15:24
Line 2A. Kempe13:04A. Panarin13:19A. Kopitar11:58
Line 3J. Armia9:13S. Laughton11:24A. Kuzmenko8:24
Line 4S. Helenius8:10J. Malott6:55J. Wright8:39
Pair 1D. Doughty17:52M. Anderson15:19
Pair 2B. Dumoulin16:50C. Ceci13:35
Pair 3J. Edmundson14:39B. Clarke13:28
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.4, LAK 2.7 | COL 4, LAK 2 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | COL 31.2, LAK 26.5 | COL 23, LAK 26 |
| Win chance | COL 61% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.1 | 0 | 1.45 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 2.9 | 6 | 0.58 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| LAK A. Panarin | 2.8 | 0 | 1.02 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.7 | 1 | 1.08 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.7 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.6 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.5 | 4 | 0.93 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.4 | 4 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.3 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| COL N. Kadri | 2.2 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.69 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| COL S. Malinski | 2.1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.0 | 1 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 1.9 | 3 | 0.59 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.8 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.7 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.7 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK S. Laughton | 1.6 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.6 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.6 | 0 | 0.65 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Wright | 1.2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kuzmenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| COL B. Kulak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK J. Armia | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL N. Roy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.6 | 3 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.5 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.