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Game Recap
COL5
LAK1
COL beat LAK 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.41 expected goals to 1.62. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). S. Wedgewood stopped 24 of 25.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| LAK | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 13:13COLN. MacKinnonPP0.17 xG
- 2nd 5:48COLC. Makar0.09 xG
- 2nd 13:43LAKJ. Edmundson0.06 xG
- 3rd 3:13COLN. Roy0.28 xG
- 3rd 6:01COLD. Toews0.04 xG
- 3rd 14:22COLN. MacKinnonEN0.88 xG
Team Stats
COLLAK
32Shots on goal25
3.41Expected goals1.62
64Shot attempts55
265v5 shots on goal18
1/2Power play0/3
21Hits50
17Blocked shots13
8Penalty minutes26
15Giveaways12
4Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 3.41 xGLAK 1.62 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 17:47 | 1:40 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 14:58 | 1:38 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:06 | 0:38 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:48 | 2:00 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:47 | 1:47 |
| N. Roy | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 13:29 | 0:00 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:52 | 0:29 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:16 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 13:28 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:10 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:45 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:17 | 2:16 |
| D. Toews | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 0:00 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | +2 | 0 | 20:28 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:27 | 0:36 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:54 | 0:00 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 25 | 24 | 1 | .960 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
LAK Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Laferriere | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 21:20 | 3:14 |
| A. Kempe | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:24 | 3:25 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:45 | 4:47 |
| Q. Byfield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:46 | 2:36 |
| T. Moore | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 | 2:39 |
| A. Kopitar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:30 | 3:12 |
| S. Laughton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:10 | 2:23 |
| J. Wright | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 0:10 |
| A. Turcotte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:10 |
| S. Helenius | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 12 | 7:26 | 0:10 |
| J. Malott | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 12 | 5:24 | 0:00 |
| T. Ward | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 5:20 | 0:54 |
| J. Edmundson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| D. Doughty | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:52 | 2:21 |
| M. Anderson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 21:38 | 0:00 |
| B. Clarke | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:22 | 3:29 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:41 | 0:10 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 16:25 | 0:20 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Forsberg | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 59:50 | Loss |
| D. Kuemper | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
COL
Line 1N. MacKinnon15:53M. Necas14:38G. Landeskog13:10
Line 2N. Kadri12:00N. Roy13:29A. Lehkonen14:46
Line 3B. Nelson13:07R. Colton12:45V. Nichushkin12:11
Line 4L. O'Connor11:01J. Drury11:09P. Kelly10:19
Pair 2B. Kulak18:02S. Malinski19:24
Pair 3B. Burns17:59N. Blankenburg12:35
LAK
Line 1T. Moore17:06Q. Byfield16:35A. Panarin16:48
Line 2A. Kopitar15:08A. Kempe15:49A. Laferriere17:08
Line 3A. Turcotte12:12J. Wright13:33S. Laughton13:17
Line 4J. Malott5:24T. Ward4:26S. Helenius7:16
Pair 1D. Doughty20:39M. Anderson20:44
Pair 2B. Dumoulin16:05C. Ceci15:06
Pair 3J. Edmundson15:41B. Clarke14:43
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.3, LAK 2.7 | COL 5, LAK 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | COL 30.7, LAK 26.4 | COL 32, LAK 25 |
| Win chance | COL 60% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.9 | 5 | 1.40 | 3 | 39% | 2 |
| LAK A. Laferriere | 3.0 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| LAK A. Panarin | 2.7 | 1 | 1.02 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kempe | 2.7 | 0 | 0.81 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.6 | 4 | 1.04 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.6 | 1 | 0.95 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| LAK T. Moore | 2.6 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| LAK Q. Byfield | 2.4 | 4 | 0.60 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.3 | 1 | 0.79 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| COL N. Kadri | 2.2 | 2 | 0.62 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.1 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 2.1 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.0 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 1.9 | 3 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.7 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.7 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK S. Laughton | 1.6 | 4 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.6 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| LAK B. Clarke | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK A. Kopitar | 1.5 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL B. Kulak | 1.2 | 0 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK D. Doughty | 1.2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Wright | 1.2 | 3 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL N. Roy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.37 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.0 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| LAK J. Edmundson | 1.0 | 3 | 0.18 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| LAK A. Turcotte | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL N. Blankenburg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK T. Ward | 0.8 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK J. Malott | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| LAK M. Anderson | 0.7 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| LAK S. Helenius | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| LAK C. Ceci | 0.6 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| LAK B. Dumoulin | 0.6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.