Game Recap: COL 6, MIN 1, January 9, 2025

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Game Recap

COL6

FinalThu, Jan 9, 2025Every game that night

MIN1

COL beat MIN 6-1, with the chances close: 3.10 expected goals to 2.73. N. MacKinnon led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Eriksson Ek had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. M. Blackwood stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	2	1	3	6
MIN	1	0	0	1

1st 3:46COLL. O'Connor0.18 xG
1st 16:52COLR. Colton0.05 xG
1st 18:27MINZ. Bogosian0.18 xG
2nd 13:00COLM. Rantanen0.23 xG
3rd 4:23COLP. Kelly0.12 xG
3rd 7:42COLA. LehkonenSH0.23 xG
3rd 8:48COLN. MacKinnon0.08 xG

Team Stats

COLMIN

27Shots on goal25

3.10Expected goals2.73

54Shot attempts61

215v5 shots on goal17

0/3Power play0/3

18Hits18

14Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes6

20Giveaways21

5Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.10 xGMIN 2.73 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL26 on goal, 6 scored

MIN24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	1	2	5	0	0	+2	0	19:44	5:42
M. Rantanen	RW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+3	0	18:54	5:43
J. Drouin	LW	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	0	18:30	5:14
L. O'Connor	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	0	17:15	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:41	5:44
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	15:28	0:00
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	2	2	1	+1	0	13:29	0:45
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	13:22	0:00
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+2	2	14:10	0:17
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	2	13:36	0:16
T. Felhaber	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:05	0:00
J. Innala	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:14	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	2	2	0	4	0	+4	0	20:58	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	1	1	6	0	2	24:38	5:43
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	22:42	0:18
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	0	16:49	0:18
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	15:37	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	13:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	25	24	1	.960	60:00	Win
T. Miner	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Gaudreau	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	17:22	1:31
Y. Trenin	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	2	14:15	0:00
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	0	20:55	4:27
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-3	0	20:44	4:27
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-4	0	20:14	4:28
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	6	1	2	-2	0	17:33	3:15
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:01	1:32
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-3	0	14:55	2:45
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	14:18	1:35
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:20	0:00
D. Shore	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	7:41	0:00
B. Jones	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:32	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	19:46	0:07
D. Chisholm	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	22:21	3:41
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-4	2	20:22	0:00
J. Merrill	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	2	19:04	0:00
T. Dermott	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:36	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:01	2:12

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	27	21	6	.778	60:00	Loss
M. Fleury	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamYakov Trenin MIN Faces COL, his team until May 20241 A, 0 SOG
HometownSam Malinski COL Plays near home (born in Lakeville)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.1, MIN 3.2	COL 6, MIN 1
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	COL 29.6, MIN 28.8	COL 27, MIN 25
Win chance	MIN 52%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.0	5	1.39	2	37%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.2	4	0.93	0	32%	0
COL C. Makar	3.1	1	1.04	0	21%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.9	6	0.81	0	29%	0
COL M. Rantanen	2.9	3	1.17	2	38%	1
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.3	2	0.97	0	25%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.2	2	0.69	1	29%	1
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	1	0.55	0	23%	0
MIN M. Rossi	2.1	2	0.76	0	27%	0
COL D. Toews	2.0	2	0.59	0	11%	0
COL R. Colton	1.9	2	0.47	1	22%	1
COL J. Drouin	1.7	0	0.72	2	19%	0
MIN F. Gaudreau	1.6	0	0.41	1	18%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	0	0.45	0	17%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	0	0.29	2	7%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.4	2	0.57	0	17%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	0	0.26	1	16%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	1.2	2	0.22	1	5%	1
COL S. Malinski	1.2	2	0.17	0	4%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	2	0.22	1	10%	1
COL L. O'Connor	1.1	3	0.28	2	11%	1
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	1	0.22	1	11%	0
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	0	0.31	0	7%	0
MIN D. Chisholm	1.1	0	0.29	0	6%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	1	0.39	0	17%	0
COL C. Haan	0.9	0	0.14	0	3%	0
MIN B. Jones	0.8	1	0.08	0	6%	0
COL J. Parssinen	0.8	0	0.26	0	10%	0
MIN D. Shore	0.7	1	0.18	0	6%	0
COL K. Middleton	0.7	1	0.04	0	2%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.7	1	0.17	0	2%	0
MIN J. Merrill	0.6	2	0.17	0	4%	0
COL J. Innala	0.5	0	0.11	0	7%	0
MIN M. Khusnutdinov	0.5	1	0.17	0	8%	0
MIN T. Dermott	0.4	1	0.08	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.