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Game Recap
COL1
MIN2
MIN beat COL 2-1 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 1.33 expected goals to 2.52. F. Gustavsson stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MIN | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 11:01MINM. Zuccarello0.18 xG
- 3rd 14:20COLJ. Kiviranta0.11 xG
Team Stats
COLMIN
28Shots on goal23
2.52Expected goals1.33
68Shot attempts46
205v5 shots on goal20
0/2Power play0/1
11Hits16
16Blocked shots22
2Penalty minutes4
21Giveaways27
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 2.52 xGMIN 1.33 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:46 | 0:36 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:53 | 0:00 |
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 25:37 | 3:39 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:48 | 3:37 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:28 | 0:23 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 18:25 | 3:24 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:08 | 3:20 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:40 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:12 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 28:44 | 3:49 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 23:51 | 0:20 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 23 | 22 | 1 | .957 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 22:55 | 1:22 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:42 | 1:22 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:49 | 1:22 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:46 | 0:38 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:38 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:38 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:38 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:49 | 1:22 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:46 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:33 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 27:50 | 1:26 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:45 | 0:34 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 65:00 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.0, MIN 2.8 | COL 1, MIN 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | COL 29.0, MIN 26.5 | COL 28, MIN 23 |
| Win chance | COL 53% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.8 | 2 | 1.32 | 0 | 36% | 0 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.4 | 5 | 0.93 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.8 | 4 | 0.94 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.5 | 2 | 0.82 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.4 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.3 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.3 | 3 | 0.86 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.0 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.0 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 1.9 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.6 | 0 | 0.47 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.6 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.6 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.4 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.4 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL C. Coyle | 1.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.2 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.2 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.2 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.