Game Recap: COL 5, MIN 1, December 21, 2025

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Game Recap

COL5

FinalSun, Dec 21, 2025Every game that night

MIN1

COL beat MIN 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.70 expected goals to 2.80. COL outshot MIN 42 to 29. C. Makar led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Makar had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. M. Blackwood stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	1	2	2	5
MIN	0	0	1	1

1st 18:28COLM. Necas0.16 xG
2nd 13:37COLN. MacKinnonPP0.18 xG
2nd 18:33COLC. MakarPP0.05 xG
3rd 5:15MINR. Hartman0.33 xG
3rd 15:52COLB. Nelson0.12 xG
3rd 17:35COLN. MacKinnonEN0.92 xG

Team Stats

COLMIN

42Shots on goal29

4.70Expected goals2.80

87Shot attempts61

275v5 shots on goal21

2/4Power play0/3

17Hits13

8Blocked shots25

6Penalty minutes8

20Giveaways11

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.70 xGMIN 2.80 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL41 on goal, 5 scored

MIN28 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	1	2	3	2	1	0	+1	0	17:57	4:58
N. MacKinnon	C	2	0	2	4	2	1	+2	0	22:33	4:58
G. Landeskog	LW	0	2	2	4	4	1	+2	2	20:52	4:58
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	2	2	3	1	1	+2	0	19:27	1:18
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	19:40	4:58
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	17:07	1:18
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	11:50	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	10:35	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	10:12	1:14
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:09	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:03	0:04
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	9:45	1:14
C. Makar	D	1	2	3	7	1	0	+2	0	23:25	4:58
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	+2	0	22:23	1:18
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	14:24	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	20:28	0:04
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	17:27	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	-1	2	21:29	4:20
R. Hartman	RW	1	0	1	3	1	3	+1	0	18:09	1:37
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	21:34	4:20
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	20:24	4:23
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:56	4:26
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:30	1:42
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	2	13:57	1:35
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	11:41	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:41	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	10:03	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	8:50	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:29	0:00
J. Brodin	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	0	0	22:35	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	26:41	4:34
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	23:07	1:26
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	2	5	-1	0	21:34	1:37
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	13:20	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	41	37	4	.902	58:45	Loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon16:20M. Necas14:36G. Landeskog14:39

Line 2A. Lehkonen14:22V. Nichushkin14:45B. Nelson10:51

Line 3J. Drury9:37J. Kiviranta8:29P. Kelly8:16

Line 4V. Olofsson8:58G. Brindley8:31R. Colton9:59

Pair 1D. Toews16:57C. Makar14:47

Pair 2B. Burns16:53J. Manson15:22

Pair 3S. Malinski15:43S. Girard13:20

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello14:13R. Hartman16:28K. Kaprizov15:54

Line 2J. Ek12:18M. Boldy12:47M. Johansson13:03

Line 3V. Tarasenko11:07D. Yurov10:03Y. Trenin8:41

Line 4V. Hinostroza8:29N. Sturm7:44M. Foligno8:50

Pair 1Q. Hughes20:48B. Faber17:22

Pair 2J. Spurgeon17:56J. Brodin18:19

Pair 3J. Middleton11:24D.Jiricek6:59

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamYakov Trenin MIN Faces COL, his team until May 20240 SOG
HometownSam Malinski COL Plays near home (born in Lakeville)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.5, MIN 2.6	COL 5, MIN 1
Total goals	6.0	6
Shots on goal	COL 33.5, MIN 26.8	COL 42, MIN 29
Win chance	COL 63%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.6	4	1.42	2	41%	2
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.2	3	1.00	1	40%	0
COL C. Makar	3.2	7	1.06	3	25%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.1	5	0.85	0	31%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.8	3	0.61	0	24%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.6	4	0.79	2	30%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.4	4	0.82	0	11%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.4	3	0.64	2	29%	0
COL M. Necas	2.4	3	0.91	1	27%	1
COL B. Nelson	2.4	2	0.72	3	31%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.3	2	0.64	0	27%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	3	0.41	1	19%	1
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.9	1	0.52	0	21%	0
COL B. Burns	1.8	3	0.35	0	8%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.8	1	0.35	0	8%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	1.8	1	0.63	0	18%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.8	1	0.31	0	6%	0
COL R. Colton	1.8	2	0.35	0	16%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	4	0.46	1	9%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.5	3	0.34	0	16%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.5	2	0.39	0	16%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	1	0.29	0	7%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.4	3	0.42	0	15%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.4	1	0.40	0	14%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.4	0	0.26	0	13%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	0	0.23	0	10%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	0	0.27	0	11%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.2	1	0.28	0	6%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	1	0.26	1	4%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.1	0	0.26	0	13%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	1	0.26	1	5%	0
MIN N. Sturm	1.1	0	0.20	0	10%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.0	1	0.20	0	10%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	0	0.15	0	8%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.7	0	0.12	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.