Game Recap: COL 5, MIN 2, May 11, 2026

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Game Recap

COL5

FinalMon, May 11, 2026PlayoffsEvery game that night

MIN2

COL beat MIN 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.64 expected goals to 2.63. COL outshot MIN 34 to 21. M. Necas led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). N. Kadri had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. M. Blackwood stopped 19 of 21.

Team Stats

COLMIN

34Shots on goal21

4.64Expected goals2.63

74Shot attempts50

275v5 shots on goal15

1/2Power play1/4

32Hits29

12Blocked shots22

8Penalty minutes8

13Giveaways12

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.64 xGMIN 2.63 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL31 on goal, 4 scored

MIN21 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	0	2	2	1	2	0	+1	0	21:32	2:07
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:48	2:07
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	+2	0	17:00	0:00
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	5	3	0	0	0	16:13	2:07
N. Roy	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	10:29	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	8:46	0:00
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	4	4	0	0	2	8:39	0:00
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	2	8:13	0:00
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	0	19:20	2:07
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	19:09	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	+1	0	14:23	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	9:00	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+3	0	28:25	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	26:09	2:07
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	21:42	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+3	0	19:47	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	4	14:39	0:00
J. Ahcan	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	7:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	21	19	2	.905	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Yurov	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	2	13:06	2:37
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	12:22	2:06
N. Sturm	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	0	8:25	0:00
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	24:27	5:05
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	0	23:51	4:58
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	3	0	2	-2	0	22:35	4:02
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	19:54	4:09
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	4	3	0	0	14:15	0:00
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	12:40	1:42
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	2	12:22	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	9:13	0:00
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	8:38	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	-1	0	34:13	4:45
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	29:19	2:08
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:37	1:43
D. Hunt	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	-1	0	13:17	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:43	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	9:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	32	29	3	.906	58:30	Loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1M. Necas17:38N. MacKinnon16:32G. Landeskog16:16

Line 2N. Kadri13:06V. Nichushkin15:11L. O'Connor11:49

Line 3N. Roy10:18B. Nelson12:58R. Colton8:39

Line 4J. Drury6:53J. Kiviranta6:58P. Kelly6:56

Pair 1D. Toews21:49C. Makar21:43

Pair 2B. Burns14:21B. Kulak17:32

Pair 3J. Ahcan7:07J. Manson12:54

MIN

Line 1R. Hartman16:35K. Kaprizov16:38M. Zuccarello13:39

Line 2M. McCarron13:11Y. Trenin12:22V. Tarasenko10:16

Line 3M. Johansson10:12M. Boldy15:24D. Yurov10:29

Line 4M. Foligno8:38N. Sturm7:22N. Foligno8:09

Pair 1Q. Hughes26:32B. Faber23:48

Pair 2J. Spurgeon12:49D. Hunt11:30

Pair 3Z. Bogosian9:26J. Middleton11:40

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamYakov Trenin MIN Faces COL, his team until May 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.5, MIN 3.1	COL 5, MIN 2
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	COL 32.9, MIN 28.5	COL 34, MIN 21
Win chance	COL 56%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	2	1.35	1	38%	1
MIN M. Boldy	3.5	1	0.95	0	35%	0
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.4	1	1.13	0	43%	0
COL C. Makar	2.8	3	0.98	0	25%	0
COL M. Necas	2.7	1	1.02	2	29%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.6	3	0.59	0	25%	0
COL N. Kadri	2.4	5	0.65	1	23%	1
COL G. Landeskog	2.4	2	0.79	0	28%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.2	2	0.98	1	13%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.0	2	0.77	0	21%	0
MIN B. Faber	2.0	1	0.52	1	11%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.0	3	0.62	1	27%	1
COL B. Burns	1.9	2	0.34	0	9%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	1.9	3	0.58	0	24%	0
COL D. Toews	1.8	1	0.55	0	12%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.7	1	0.46	1	20%	0
COL R. Colton	1.5	4	0.29	1	13%	1
COL J. Manson	1.4	2	0.29	0	6%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.4	2	0.24	0	12%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.3	1	0.41	0	14%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.3	1	0.23	0	5%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	1	0.27	1	12%	1
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.1	0	0.28	0	6%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
COL J. Drury	1.0	0	0.24	1	9%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.0	2	0.29	1	12%	1
MIN M. Foligno	1.0	0	0.24	0	12%	0
COL N. Roy	1.0	2	0.32	1	12%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.0	1	0.24	0	9%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	1	0.17	0	8%	0
MIN N. Foligno	0.9	2	0.26	0	10%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	3	0.19	1	9%	1
MIN J. Middleton	0.7	0	0.18	0	4%	0
COL J. Ahcan	0.7	0	0.12	0	3%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.7	0	0.18	0	2%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.6	0	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.