Game Recap: COL 5, MTL 4 (SO), March 22, 2025

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Game Recap

COL5

Final/SOSat, Mar 22, 2025Every game that night

MTL4

COL beat MTL 5-4 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.72 expected goals to 3.53. COL outshot MTL 37 to 29. J. Slafkovský led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Makar had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. M. Blackwood stopped 25 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
COL	2	1	1	1	5
MTL	0	1	3	0	4

1st 7:35COLS. Malinski0.03 xG
1st 10:09COLR. Lindgren0.14 xG
2nd 5:24COLM. NecasPP0.16 xG
2nd 5:51MTLJ. Slafkovský0.06 xG
3rd 3:58COLB. Nelson0.08 xG
3rd 9:24MTLJ. Roy0.34 xG
3rd 9:54MTLJ. Slafkovský0.15 xG
3rd 13:32MTLC. Dvorak0.06 xG

Team Stats

COLMTL

37Shots on goal29

4.72Expected goals3.53

79Shot attempts64

275v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/4

17Hits27

17Blocked shots18

17Penalty minutes11

7Giveaways16

12Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.72 xGMTL 3.53 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL37 on goal, 4 scored

MTL28 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	16:30	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	3	2	2	-2	0	24:09	2:49
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	-2	0	22:04	2:49
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	17:56	0:49
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	16:33	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	13:10	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	4	9:34	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	-2	2	22:09	2:49
C. Coyle	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	13:34	0:00
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	10:34	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	8:43	0:00
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:47	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	-1	2	28:05	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	0	20:40	0:00
S. Malinski	D	1	0	1	2	2	2	0	0	17:39	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	6	0	2	-1	0	31:06	2:49
E. Johnson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:44	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	5	10:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	29	25	4	.862	64:57	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Slafkovský	LW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+1	2	19:23	5:09
N. Suzuki	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	22:44	6:54
P. Laine	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	0	17:30	5:26
C. Dvorak	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	16:21	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	15:38	1:45
A. Newhook	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	15:13	1:49
J. Roy	RW	1	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	11:07	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	6	2	0	+1	0	19:06	5:05
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:37	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	2	14:35	0:00
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	0	5	0	+1	0	11:50	1:13
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:16	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	0	21:23	0:15
J. Struble	D	0	1	1	0	5	1	+1	0	20:36	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	+2	0	28:51	5:15
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	2	26:35	1:39
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	12:19	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-2	5	11:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	37	33	4	.892	65:00	OT loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlex Newhook MTL Faces COL, his team until Apr 20231 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.5, MTL 2.9	COL 5, MTL 4
Total goals	6.4	9
Shots on goal	COL 29.7, MTL 25.5	COL 37, MTL 29
Win chance	COL 59%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.8	6	1.39	0	39%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	6	0.83	0	34%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	3	0.88	1	28%	1
COL C. Makar	2.6	6	1.07	0	24%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.4	3	0.81	1	34%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.2	2	0.72	2	31%	1
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	3	0.94	1	28%	0
MTL P. Laine	2.0	3	0.65	1	26%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	1.9	2	0.68	1	30%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	1.9	3	0.64	2	21%	2
MTL M. Matheson	1.8	2	0.53	0	11%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.8	1	0.41	1	18%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	3	0.56	1	11%	0
COL M. Wood	1.5	2	0.24	0	12%	0
COL R. Colton	1.5	1	0.41	1	19%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	1	0.29	0	11%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.4	1	0.33	0	16%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.4	0	0.31	0	16%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.3	2	0.39	1	17%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	2	0.25	1	5%	1
COL J. Drouin	1.2	2	0.63	1	17%	0
MTL J. Roy	1.2	1	0.29	1	13%	1
MTL C. Dvorak	1.2	3	0.38	1	14%	1
COL C. Coyle	1.2	2	0.40	0	18%	0
COL K. Middleton	1.1	0	0.12	0	2%	0
COL J. Vesey	1.1	0	0.27	0	13%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.0	1	0.30	1	5%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.0	1	0.65	0	6%	0
MTL E. Heineman	1.0	0	0.32	0	15%	0
COL E. Johnson	1.0	0	0.14	0	5%	0
MTL J. Evans	0.9	2	0.39	0	13%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.9	0	0.23	1	12%	0
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.9	0	0.13	0	4%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	0	0.21	1	5%	0
COL R. Lindgren	0.8	2	0.29	1	4%	1
MTL D. Savard	0.6	0	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.