Game Recap: COL 3, MTL 7, January 29, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

COL3

FinalThu, Jan 29, 2026Every game that night

MTL7

MTL beat COL 7-3, with the chances close: 3.13 expected goals to 3.23. N. Suzuki led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). N. Dobson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Dobes stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	1	1	1	3
MTL	3	2	2	7

1st 0:56MTLN. Dobson0.02 xG
1st 4:09COLB. Nelson0.07 xG
1st 5:51MTLN. SuzukiPP0.34 xG
1st 7:33MTLN. SuzukiSH0.15 xG
2nd 16:36MTLJ. Evans0.11 xG
2nd 17:16MTLK. Dach0.08 xG
2nd 18:06COLJ. Kiviranta0.15 xG
3rd 4:38COLR. Colton0.26 xG
3rd 5:45MTLA. Carrier0.23 xG
3rd 9:55MTLJ. Slafkovský0.34 xG

Team Stats

COLMTL

29Shots on goal28

3.23Expected goals3.13

62Shot attempts52

265v5 shots on goal24

0/2Power play1/2

25Hits22

8Blocked shots21

6Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways14

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.23 xGMTL 3.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL29 on goal, 3 scored

MTL28 on goal, 7 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	1	2	0	-2	0	17:10	3:19
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	0	15:13	0:41
J. Drury	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	14:20	0:00
R. Colton	C	1	0	1	2	3	1	-1	0	12:37	0:41
J. Kiviranta	LW	1	0	1	1	2	0	+1	0	11:14	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	21:09	3:19
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-3	0	20:57	3:19
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	4	2	1	-2	0	17:55	0:41
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:21	3:19
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	8	1	0	0	13:11	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:37	0:41
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:17	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	2	21:00	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	19:13	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	+1	0	17:28	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	24:02	3:19
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	0	21:30	0:41
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	4	12:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	28	21	7	.750	60:00	Loss
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	2	1	3	4	1	2	+2	0	17:42	1:43
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	1	2	4	1	2	+1	0	16:57	1:43
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	2	2	3	0	2	+2	0	15:12	0:41
I. Demidov	RW	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	0	15:05	1:46
K. Dach	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+3	0	14:36	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	2	2	0	0	1	+3	0	14:24	0:44
J. Evans	C	1	0	1	1	1	2	+1	0	16:12	0:00
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	14:50	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:33	0:44
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	4	2	-1	0	13:25	1:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	+1	2	12:49	1:27
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	12:36	0:00
L. Hutson	D	0	2	2	0	0	2	+2	0	20:23	1:38
K. Guhle	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	22:56	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	21:36	0:00
N. Dobson	D	1	0	1	5	2	2	+2	0	19:34	0:49
A. Carrier	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	19:26	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	2	13:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Dobes	29	26	3	.897	59:45	Win
S. Montembeault	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon17:50M. Necas17:38A. Lehkonen16:29

Line 2J. Drury12:39J. Kiviranta9:53V. Olofsson12:02

Line 3Z. Bardakov10:17G. Brindley10:56P. Kelly12:04

Line 4B. Nelson13:14V. Nichushkin13:55R. Colton11:41

Pair 1C. Makar19:38S. Malinski21:00

Pair 2B. Burns18:52J. Manson17:04

Pair 3K. Middleton12:43S. Girard16:50

MTL

Line 1N. Suzuki15:26A. Texier13:49C. Caufield11:22

Line 2I. Demidov13:19J. Slafkovský15:14O. Kapanen12:15

Line 3K. Dach14:15Z. Bolduc13:54J. Evans13:22

Line 4P. Danault12:15J. Anderson11:30B. Gallagher12:10

Pair 1M. Matheson18:15K. Guhle21:28

Pair 2N. Dobson18:02L. Hutson18:45

Pair 3A. Carrier15:59A. Xhekaj13:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.7, MTL 3.2	COL 3, MTL 7
Total goals	6.9	10
Shots on goal	COL 30.7, MTL 26.4	COL 29, MTL 28
Win chance	COL 56%	MTL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	2	1.55	0	43%	0
MTL C. Caufield	3.0	0	0.81	0	35%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	3	1.04	0	24%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	3	1.08	0	31%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.5	1	0.91	1	36%	1
COL V. Nichushkin	2.1	0	0.66	1	29%	0
COL R. Colton	2.0	2	0.44	1	18%	1
MTL N. Suzuki	2.0	4	0.87	3	27%	2
COL V. Olofsson	2.0	1	0.55	0	25%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.0	4	0.38	1	7%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.0	4	0.64	0	27%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	4	0.67	2	24%	1
COL B. Burns	1.9	1	0.41	0	10%	0
MTL N. Dobson	1.8	5	0.51	1	9%	1
MTL O. Kapanen	1.8	0	0.45	2	21%	0
MTL A. Texier	1.7	1	0.48	0	19%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.6	0	0.32	0	15%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.6	2	0.79	2	20%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	2	0.38	1	8%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.4	2	0.41	1	7%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.4	0	0.83	2	8%	0
MTL P. Danault	1.3	0	0.39	0	14%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	1.3	3	0.35	2	17%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	1	0.31	0	13%	0
COL J. Drury	1.3	0	0.34	1	14%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.2	1	0.29	0	16%	0
MTL K. Dach	1.2	2	0.33	2	14%	1
COL G. Brindley	1.1	1	0.29	0	12%	0
COL K. Middleton	1.0	0	0.10	0	2%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.0	1	0.24	1	6%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	1	0.33	1	12%	1
COL S. Girard	0.9	3	0.29	1	5%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	2	0.27	1	5%	1
COL J. Kiviranta	0.7	1	0.18	1	9%	1
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.6	0	0.07	0	2%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.5	0	0.20	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.