Game Recap: COL 2, NSH 5, November 2, 2024

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Game Recap

COL2

FinalSat, Nov 2, 2024Every game that night

NSH5

NSH beat COL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.52 expected goals to 2.32. N. MacKinnon led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). P. Kelly had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Saros stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	1	1	2
NSH	0	2	3	5

2nd 2:54COLC. MakarPP0.06 xG
2nd 8:31NSHS. StamkosPP0.09 xG
2nd 18:40NSHC. Sissons0.08 xG
3rd 5:15NSHR. JosiPP0.13 xG
3rd 17:43COLN. MacKinnon0.02 xG
3rd 18:46NSHF. ForsbergEN0.50 xG
3rd 19:19NSHG. NyquistEN0.58 xG

Team Stats

COLNSH

31Shots on goal26

2.32Expected goals3.52

67Shot attempts55

255v5 shots on goal22

1/4Power play2/2

26Hits23

15Blocked shots25

6Penalty minutes8

23Giveaways15

11Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.32 xGNSH 3.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL31 on goal, 2 scored

NSH26 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	1	2	6	2	1	-1	0	22:32	3:52
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-2	0	21:55	4:16
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	26:20	4:45
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-2	2	17:52	3:49
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:13	0:42
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	15:45	0:09
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	4	5	1	0	0	13:52	0:00
N. Prishchepov	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	13:30	0:00
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:25	0:41
C. Wagner	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	8:36	0:00
T. Tynan	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:15	0:25
C. Makar	D	1	1	2	3	0	3	-1	0	26:38	4:10
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	0	23:09	1:08
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	23:09	0:42
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	16:59	0:39
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:57	0:00
J. Ludvig	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	11:32	0:00
O. Kylington	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	24	21	3	.875	58:22	Loss
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	-1	2	16:56	0:32
G. Nyquist	RW	1	1	2	1	0	2	+2	0	15:53	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	19:20	0:32
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	0	18:39	0:32
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	2	18:00	0:32
C. Sissons	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+2	0	14:53	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	10:45	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	14:11	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	13:07	0:00
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:43	0:00
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	10:29	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:54	0:00
R. Josi	D	1	1	2	4	0	2	+1	0	24:10	0:32
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	1	1	0	3	3	+1	0	16:34	0:00
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	23:04	0:00
J. Lauzon	D	0	0	0	2	4	0	+2	2	20:40	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	19:34	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	2	16:00	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJustus Annunen NSH Faces COL, his team until Nov 202421 saves on 24
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces NSH, his team until Nov 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.3, NSH 3.3	COL 2, NSH 5
Total goals	6.6	7
Shots on goal	COL 30.5, NSH 32.2	COL 31, NSH 26
Win chance	NSH 51%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.5	6	1.47	2	40%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	4.0	5	1.14	1	41%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	3.2	1	1.05	2	37%	1
COL M. Rantanen	3.2	3	1.21	0	38%	0
NSH R. Josi	3.2	4	0.98	2	20%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	3.1	3	0.87	1	35%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	3	1.05	2	24%	1
NSH B. Skjei	2.1	0	0.55	0	12%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	2.1	2	0.80	1	22%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	0	0.83	1	28%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.9	2	0.45	0	16%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	0	0.55	1	11%	0
COL I. Ivan	1.7	1	0.35	0	14%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.6	1	0.80	2	22%	1
NSH T. Novak	1.6	0	0.60	0	21%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.5	1	0.37	0	15%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	0	0.32	0	9%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	4	0.22	0	10%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.3	2	0.35	1	13%	1
NSH M. Gaizo	1.3	0	0.24	1	4%	0
COL O. Kylington	1.2	0	0.26	0	8%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	0	0.32	0	7%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.2	1	0.33	0	14%	0
NSH A. Carrier	1.2	0	0.35	0	6%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	1.2	0	0.33	0	12%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	3	0.23	0	11%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.1	2	0.25	0	10%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.1	0	0.18	0	4%	0
NSH J. Lauzon	1.1	2	0.18	0	5%	0
COL S. Girard	1.0	3	0.35	0	6%	0
COL C. Wagner	1.0	2	0.11	0	7%	0
NSH J. Parssinen	1.0	2	0.36	0	13%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	0.8	1	0.27	1	11%	0
COL J. Ludvig	0.7	1	0.18	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 15 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.