Game Recap: COL 1, NSH 2, February 22, 2025

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Game Recap

COL1

FinalSat, Feb 22, 2025Every game that night

NSH2

NSH beat COL 2-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.11 expected goals to 2.80. COL outshot NSH 32 to 17. N. MacKinnon had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 4.1. J. Saros stopped 31 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	1	0	1
NSH	0	1	1	2

2nd 1:15COLS. Malinski0.02 xG
2nd 1:45NSHJ. Barron0.07 xG
3rd 9:11NSHJ. Marchessault0.45 xG

Team Stats

COLNSH

32Shots on goal17

2.80Expected goals2.11

67Shot attempts41

305v5 shots on goal16

0/1Power play0/2

24Hits15

10Blocked shots21

4Penalty minutes2

20Giveaways12

7Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.80 xGNSH 2.11 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL32 on goal, 1 scored

NSH17 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Drouin	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	15:46	1:13
J. Parssinen	C	0	1	1	3	5	1	+1	0	11:59	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	22:30	1:43
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	8	0	0	-1	0	21:00	1:35
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	4	20:40	1:16
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	16:27	0:47
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	13:18	0:44
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	12:25	0:17
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:46	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:44	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	11:20	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:08	0:00
S. Malinski	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	19:24	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	25:16	1:42
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	24:46	0:18
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	21:36	0:25
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	14:42	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	-1	0	12:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	17	15	2	.882	59:04	Loss
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:47	1:31
C. Sissons	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	11:29	0:00
C. Smith	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	11:19	0:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	20:22	1:31
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	18:03	1:30
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	16:40	0:54
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	16:34	0:53
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	14:46	0:53
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:29	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:43	0:00
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	11:41	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	11:15	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	0	0	5	0	0	26:31	1:42
J. Barron	D	1	0	1	1	1	3	+1	0	19:36	1:42
L. Schenn	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	18:41	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	21:24	0:42
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	20:05	0:42
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	14:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	32	31	1	.969	60:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJustus Annunen NSH Faces COL, his team until Nov 20240 saves on 0
Old teamRoss Colton NSH Faces COL, his team until May 20260 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces NSH, his team until Nov 202415 saves on 17

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.1, NSH 2.9	COL 1, NSH 2
Total goals	5.9	3
Shots on goal	COL 29.1, NSH 29.2	COL 32, NSH 17
Win chance	COL 53%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	8	1.43	0	37%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.6	2	1.01	0	36%	0
COL M. Necas	3.2	1	0.99	0	29%	0
COL C. Makar	3.1	4	1.17	0	29%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.9	2	0.83	1	33%	1
NSH R. Josi	2.7	0	0.83	1	18%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.5	3	0.80	0	32%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.3	1	0.81	0	32%	0
COL D. Toews	2.0	1	0.65	0	14%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	1.9	2	0.40	0	16%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	1	0.67	0	24%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.9	0	0.45	0	12%	0
COL R. Colton	1.6	0	0.38	0	18%	0
COL J. Drury	1.6	3	0.31	0	11%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.6	3	0.51	0	20%	0
COL M. Wood	1.6	3	0.23	0	11%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.5	0	0.63	0	20%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.4	0	0.63	1	15%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	1	0.27	0	8%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.4	0	0.34	0	16%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.4	2	0.35	1	14%	0
COL S. Girard	1.3	0	0.37	0	7%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.3	0	0.31	0	12%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	0	0.26	0	13%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	2	0.19	1	5%	1
COL P. Kelly	1.2	0	0.23	0	10%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.2	0	0.24	1	10%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.1	1	0.25	1	9%	1
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.1	0	0.46	0	13%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.1	0	0.14	1	3%	0
COL K. Middleton	1.0	1	0.11	0	2%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.0	0	0.27	0	12%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	2	0.22	0	10%	0
COL C. Haan	0.9	1	0.17	0	4%	0
COL J. Parssinen	0.7	3	0.24	1	9%	0
NSH A. Englund	0.3	2	0.08	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 11 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.