Game Recap: COL 3, NSH 0, November 22, 2025

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Game Recap

COL3

FinalSat, Nov 22, 2025Every game that night

NSH0

COL beat NSH 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.07 expected goals to 3.32. NSH outshot COL 35 to 26. L. Evangelista had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. M. Blackwood stopped 35 of 35.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	1	0	2	3
NSH	0	0	0	0

1st 0:15COLB. Burns0.02 xG
3rd 18:25COLN. MacKinnonEN0.78 xG
3rd 19:09COLJ. DruryEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

COLNSH

26Shots on goal35

4.07Expected goals3.32

47Shot attempts71

215v5 shots on goal34

0/2Power play0/3

28Hits15

13Blocked shots8

6Penalty minutes4

10Giveaways17

4Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.07 xGNSH 3.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL25 on goal, 3 scored

NSH35 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	21:11	3:52
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	20:14	2:32
G. Landeskog	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	18:38	2:22
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	17:46	1:38
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	16:02	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	1	5	0	+1	0	15:48	0:00
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	17:46	3:31
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	5	4	1	+1	0	15:32	1:28
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:49	0:27
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	8:05	0:00
J. Polin	RW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	6:54	0:00
T. Nielsen	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	6:51	0:00
B. Burns	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	+2	0	17:28	0:08
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	25:35	3:33
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	4	19:08	0:29
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	18:22	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	+2	0	18:13	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	35	35	0	1.000	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	3	0	1	-1	0	20:29	2:29
F. Forsberg	LW	4	2	0	-1	2	20:08	2:20
L. Evangelista	RW	7	0	0	-1	0	19:50	2:40
J. Marchessault	RW	0	2	0	-2	0	18:20	3:31
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	1	-1	0	17:32	3:53
M. Bunting	LW	1	0	0	-2	0	16:48	3:25
E. Haula	LW	2	1	0	-1	0	14:55	1:32
M. McCarron	C	5	2	0	-1	2	14:29	0:03
M. Wood	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	13:47	3:24
T. Jost	C	0	2	0	0	0	9:12	0:00
O. Wiesblatt	C	0	1	1	0	0	8:01	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	2	0	0	0	0	6:44	0:00
B. Skjei	D	3	0	2	-1	0	24:01	0:38
N. Perbix	D	0	1	1	-1	0	23:28	0:01
R. Josi	D	4	0	1	-2	0	19:40	2:52
N. Blankenburg	D	1	2	0	-1	0	18:28	3:12
N. Hague	D	1	1	0	-1	0	17:28	0:00
S. Stastney	D	1	0	1	0	0	13:42	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	24	23	1	.958	58:58	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1B. Nelson13:17R. Colton13:53M. Necas14:14

Line 2A. Lehkonen14:28N. MacKinnon16:35G. Landeskog15:39

Line 3P. Kelly12:21J. Drury11:58V. Olofsson12:22

Line 4Z. Bardakov8:05T. Nielsen6:51J. Polin6:54

Pair 1C. Makar18:49D. Toews16:59

Pair 2S. Malinski17:33S. Girard15:53

Pair 3B. Burns13:48J. Manson15:11

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly16:06F. Forsberg17:04L. Evangelista16:44

Line 2M. Bunting12:57M. McCarron13:30J. Marchessault14:13

Line 3S. Stamkos13:03E. Haula10:59M. Wood9:57

Line 4O. Wiesblatt8:01T. Jost7:20F. Svechkov6:44

Pair 1B. Skjei20:59N. Perbix21:04

Pair 2R. Josi16:04N. Hague15:25

Pair 3S. Stastney11:48N. Blankenburg12:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJustus Annunen NSH Faces COL, his team until Nov 20240 saves on 0
Old teamRoss Colton NSH Faces COL, his team until May 20265 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces NSH, his team until Nov 20240 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.6, NSH 2.7	COL 3, NSH 0
Total goals	6.2	3
Shots on goal	COL 30.1, NSH 26.4	COL 26, NSH 35
Win chance	COL 64%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.0	1	1.54	1	40%	1
NSH F. Forsberg	3.1	4	0.85	0	35%	0
COL C. Makar	2.8	1	1.21	0	29%	0
COL M. Necas	2.6	1	1.10	0	31%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.5	0	0.67	0	30%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.5	2	0.84	1	32%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.3	4	0.72	0	15%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.3	7	0.52	0	18%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.2	0	0.71	0	32%	0
COL V. Olofsson	2.1	1	0.64	0	25%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.0	1	0.73	1	29%	0
COL R. Colton	1.9	5	0.51	0	20%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.9	1	0.45	0	18%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.8	3	0.64	0	24%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	1	0.52	0	21%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.7	2	0.63	1	24%	0
COL B. Burns	1.6	3	0.40	1	9%	1
NSH E. Haula	1.6	2	0.40	0	18%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.6	3	0.41	0	10%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	3	0.37	1	13%	1
COL D. Toews	1.4	1	0.59	0	12%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.4	1	0.29	0	6%	0
COL J. Manson	1.3	1	0.31	0	8%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.3	1	0.34	0	7%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.3	0	0.24	0	10%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	1	0.26	1	10%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.1	5	0.23	0	11%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.1	0	0.27	0	6%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.0	1	0.20	0	5%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.0	2	0.19	0	10%	0
COL S. Girard	1.0	0	0.30	0	5%	0
NSH O. Wiesblatt	0.8	0	0.17	0	8%	0
COL J. Polin	0.8	0	0.15	0	8%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.7	1	0.20	0	3%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.7	1	0.24	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.