Game Recap: COL 3, NSH 4 (SO), December 9, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

COL3

Final/SOTue, Dec 9, 2025Every game that night

NSH4

NSH beat COL 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 3.77 expected goals to 4.14. COL outshot NSH 42 to 31. N. MacKinnon led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). S. Stamkos had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. J. Saros stopped 39 of 42.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
COL	2	0	1	0	3
NSH	2	0	1	1	4

1st 1:12COLB. Nelson0.15 xG
1st 4:05NSHJ. MarchessaultPP0.18 xG
1st 5:30NSHR. Schaefer0.21 xG
1st 10:21COLA. Lehkonen0.33 xG
3rd 12:58NSHB. Skjei0.02 xG
3rd 19:52COLC. MakarPP0.04 xG

Team Stats

COLNSH

42Shots on goal31

4.14Expected goals3.77

79Shot attempts49

305v5 shots on goal22

1/4Power play1/2

9Hits11

7Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways14

7Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 4.14 xGNSH 3.77 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL42 on goal, 3 scored

NSH30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	2	2	7	0	0	0	0	28:22	5:56
M. Necas	C	0	2	2	3	1	0	0	0	25:36	6:12
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	22:10	4:29
B. Nelson	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:20	3:40
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	19:04	5:28
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:42	2:47
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	13:01	1:17
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:29	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:15	1:08
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:29	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	9:21	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	5:08	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	0	1	6	0	2	0	2	30:19	6:30
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	16:00	0:07
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	14:45	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	24:02	1:06
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	15:47	0:00
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	15:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	31	28	3	.903	62:20	OT loss
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:01

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	22:16	1:47
F. Forsberg	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-2	0	21:34	1:48
L. Evangelista	RW	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	18:38	1:16
J. Marchessault	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	17:42	1:50
F. Svechkov	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	15:34	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	1	0	1	1	2	2	+1	0	8:58	0:00
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	20:15	1:15
S. Stamkos	C	0	0	0	7	2	0	+1	0	18:29	1:48
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	0	15:57	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1	0	15:26	1:17
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:54	1:14
B. Skjei	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	24:46	0:24
A. Wilsby	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	0	16:17	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	20:48	1:49
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	18:35	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:12	0:00
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:40	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:37	0:52

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	42	39	3	.929	64:52	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon18:09M. Necas15:41A. Lehkonen14:37

Line 2B. Nelson15:11G. Landeskog12:26R. Colton11:07

Line 3V. Nichushkin13:34V. Olofsson9:27J. Drury11:31

Line 4J. Kiviranta8:37P. Kelly9:16Z. Bardakov5:00

Pair 1D. Toews18:49C. Makar19:38

Pair 2S. Malinski15:06S. Girard14:27

Pair 3B. Burns14:49J. Manson13:35

NSH

Line 1S. Stamkos14:18R. O'Reilly14:07L. Evangelista15:12

Line 2J. Marchessault14:35E. Haula14:31F. Forsberg17:19

Line 3M. McCarron11:07M. Bunting14:02R. Schaefer8:51

Line 4F. Svechkov13:18M. Wood7:32

Pair 1B. Skjei16:50A. Wilsby12:32

Pair 2R. Josi16:30N. Hague17:03

Pair 3N. Blankenburg9:39S. Stastney10:53

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJustus Annunen NSH Faces COL, his team until Nov 20240 saves on 0
Old teamRoss Colton NSH Faces COL, his team until May 20262 SOG
Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces NSH, his team until Nov 202428 saves on 31
BirthdayMackenzie Blackwood COL Turns 29 that day0 saves on 0

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.5, NSH 2.6	COL 3, NSH 4
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	COL 31.0, NSH 27.3	COL 42, NSH 31
Win chance	COL 64%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	7	1.56	2	41%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.0	0	0.74	1	31%	0
COL C. Makar	2.8	6	1.14	1	27%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.5	3	0.88	1	32%	1
COL M. Necas	2.5	3	1.11	2	30%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.4	3	0.68	0	15%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.3	4	0.55	1	18%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.3	3	0.85	0	29%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.1	1	0.69	0	29%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	2.1	2	0.54	1	26%	1
COL R. Colton	2.1	2	0.53	0	20%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.0	7	0.63	0	30%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.0	2	0.75	1	29%	1
NSH R. O'Reilly	1.9	1	0.65	1	24%	0
COL B. Burns	1.7	0	0.41	1	10%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.7	2	0.50	0	20%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.7	1	0.43	0	18%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.7	1	0.41	0	18%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.6	2	0.44	0	18%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.6	3	0.34	1	8%	1
COL S. Malinski	1.6	2	0.34	0	7%	0
COL D. Toews	1.4	5	0.53	0	11%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	0	0.31	1	8%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	2	0.36	0	13%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	1	0.28	0	11%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.2	0	0.31	0	7%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.2	1	0.23	1	11%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.2	2	0.21	0	10%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.1	0	0.26	0	6%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.0	2	0.17	1	3%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	1.0	1	0.19	1	10%	1
COL S. Girard	0.9	1	0.27	0	5%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	1	0.20	0	10%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.7	1	0.18	0	3%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.6	1	0.21	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.