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Game Recap
COL2
FinalSun, Oct 25, 2026Every game that night
NSH6

NSH beat COL 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.51 expected goals to 2.42. NSH outshot COL 35 to 21. R. O'Reilly led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). R. O'Reilly had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Annunen stopped 19 of 21.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
COL0112
NSH2316
  1. 1st 4:01NSHF. ForsbergPP0.12 xG
  2. 1st 10:48NSHS. Stamkos0.37 xG
  3. 2nd 6:38NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.10 xG
  4. 2nd 16:36NSHJ. Drury0.14 xG
  5. 2nd 17:29NSHR. O'ReillyPP0.08 xG
  6. 2nd 17:55COLA. Lehkonen0.24 xG
  7. 3rd 2:43COLD. Toews0.06 xG
  8. 3rd 10:24NSHS. StamkosPP0.18 xG

Team Stats

COLNSH
21Shots on goal35
2.42Expected goals3.51
45Shot attempts61
185v5 shots on goal24
0/4Power play4/7
15Hits18
11Blocked shots10
19Penalty minutes15
7Giveaways12
3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.42 xGNSH 3.51 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdNSH goal, 4:01NSH goal, 10:48NSH goal, 6:38NSH goal, 16:36NSH goal, 17:29COL goal, 17:55COL goal, 2:43NSH goal, 10:24

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL21 on goal, 2 scored
NSH35 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. NecasC022020+1219:072:45
N. MacKinnonC0112100019:495:00
A. LehkonenLW1015010018:321:41
T. HughesRW000121-1017:184:24
N. KadriC0003200216:404:25
B. NelsonC000200+1216:312:30
J. SchwartzLW000200-1015:133:59
G. LandeskogLW0000410014:052:29
P. KellyC0000010712:350:00
L. O'ConnorRW0001000211:460:00
F. SvechkovC000010-1010:530:14
T. MakarLW000110005:020:00
D. ToewsD101101+1020:062:37
S. MalinskiD0110020019:440:00
C. MakarD000101-1023:164:26
B. KulakD000103-2022:420:00
J. MansonD000020+1013:450:00
B. BurnsD000100+1412:480:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Wedgewood35296.82959:54Loss
M. Blackwood000–0:00

NSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
R. O'ReillyC224501+1220:486:33
F. ForsbergLW1233000018:506:16
S. StamkosC213401+1017:466:33
J. MarchessaultRW0112000017:196:26
J. DruryC1012010016:390:00
R. ColtonC0112220015:270:00
M. BourqueC0111100014:591:39
A. KerfootC000111-1017:281:39
A. EdstromC0000300015:510:00
M. WoodRW0003000012:291:56
N. HoglanderLW0000100011:091:04
R. JosiD033411-1421:106:33
B. SkjeiD011200+1018:211:39
N. PerbixD000110+1017:390:42
N. HagueD0001010215:560:00
A. WilsbyD000200-1015:280:00
J. StrubleD0000720715:070:00
D. HuntD000210009:340:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Annunen21192.90560:00Win
J. Saros000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon14:43M. Necas15:03A. Lehkonen14:19
Line 2J. Schwartz11:14T. Hughes12:54F. Svechkov9:30
Line 3B. Nelson10:28G. Landeskog11:36N. Kadri12:09
Line 4P. Kelly8:41L. O'Connor7:17T. Makar3:11
Pair 1S. Malinski15:28B. Kulak18:08
Pair 2C. Makar15:59D. Toews13:16
Pair 3B. Burns12:10J. Manson12:24

NSH

Line 1J. Drury12:31A. Edstrom12:05R. Colton14:46
Line 2S. Stamkos11:04R. O'Reilly11:16M. Bourque12:54
Line 3M. Wood10:10N. Hoglander10:05F. Forsberg12:29
Line 4J. Marchessault10:53A. Kerfoot12:11
Pair 1N. Hague14:45J. Struble14:48
Pair 2R. Josi12:53A. Wilsby13:20
Pair 3B. Skjei10:56N. Perbix11:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 17 overs hit (59%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
COL N. MacKinnon3.5-155+1402Under
COL C. Makar2.5-120-1051Under
NSH F. Forsberg2.5+100-1103Over
COL M. Necas2.5+125-1540Under
COL N. Kadri2.5-114-1143Over
NSH R. Josi2.5+160-1604Over
NSH S. Stamkos2.5+136-1554Over
COL A. Lehkonen1.5-130+1005Over
COL B. Nelson1.5-160+1252Over
COL D. Toews1.5-105-1201Under
COL G. Landeskog1.5-135+1050Under
NSH J. Marchessault1.5-145+1302Over
COL J. Schwartz1.5+100-1252Over
NSH M. Bourque1.5+100+1001Under
NSH M. Wood1.5+100-1183Over
NSH R. O'Reilly1.5-135+1205Over
COL S. Malinski1.5-120-1100Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamJustus Annunen NSH Faces COL, his team until Nov 202419 saves on 21, the win
  • Old teamRoss Colton NSH Faces COL, his team until May 20261 A, 2 SOG
  • Old teamScott Wedgewood COL Faces NSH, his team until Nov 202429 saves on 35

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCOL 3.8, NSH 2.5COL 2, NSH 6
Total goals6.38
Shots on goalCOL 32.5, NSH 25.6COL 21, NSH 35
Win chanceCOL 68%NSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
COL N. MacKinnon4.121.47141%0
COL N. Kadri2.830.79028%0
NSH F. Forsberg2.730.81332%1
COL M. Necas2.501.05230%0
COL C. Makar2.410.93023%0
NSH S. Stamkos2.340.72332%2
NSH R. Josi2.340.72314%0
COL T. Hughes2.210.52019%0
COL B. Nelson2.120.69030%0
COL G. Landeskog2.100.66025%0
COL A. Lehkonen2.050.73130%1
NSH M. Bourque2.010.45119%0
NSH R. O'Reilly1.950.72425%2
NSH R. Colton1.820.33115%0
COL J. Schwartz1.820.54021%0
NSH J. Marchessault1.720.47120%0
COL S. Malinski1.700.3417%0
COL B. Burns1.610.3208%0
NSH J. Drury1.420.34114%1
COL D. Toews1.410.47110%1
COL J. Manson1.400.3206%0
NSH A. Edstrom1.300.26015%0
NSH M. Wood1.330.31014%0
NSH A. Kerfoot1.210.44016%0
NSH A. Wilsby1.220.3204%0
COL L. O'Connor1.210.28011%0
COL P. Kelly1.200.32013%0
COL F. Svechkov1.100.35012%0
COL B. Kulak1.110.2405%0
NSH N. Hoglander1.000.24012%0
NSH B. Skjei1.020.2816%0
NSH N. Hague0.810.1704%0
NSH N. Perbix0.810.1804%0
NSH D. Hunt0.620.1502%0
COL T. Makar0.610.0604%0
NSH J. Struble0.600.1804%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.