Game Recap: COL 2, NYI 5, January 28, 2025

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Game Recap

COL2

FinalTue, Jan 28, 2025Every game that night

NYI5

NYI beat COL 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.02 expected goals to 3.52. S. Holmstrom led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Romanov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. I. Sorokin stopped 30 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	1	1	2
NYI	0	1	4	5

2nd 4:11NYIA. Lee0.31 xG
2nd 13:00COLA. Lehkonen0.12 xG
3rd 1:54NYIS. Holmstrom0.14 xG
3rd 11:23NYIB. Horvat0.13 xG
3rd 14:55COLJ. Drury0.19 xG
3rd 17:31NYIA. Romanov0.01 xG
3rd 18:50NYIS. HolmstromEN0.81 xG

Team Stats

COLNYI

32Shots on goal28

3.52Expected goals3.02

85Shot attempts53

285v5 shots on goal27

0/2Power play0/0

24Hits33

14Blocked shots27

0Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways14

7Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.52 xGNYI 3.02 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL32 on goal, 2 scored

NYI27 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	0	2	2	2	1	1	0	24:42	3:21
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	7	1	0	0	23:53	3:19
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	17:37	2:38
J. Drury	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:20	0:00
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	21:12	3:05
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	15:36	0:43
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	6	1	-2	14:39	1:22
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	13:02	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	11:04	0:39
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:55	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:56	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	9:21	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	2	2	3	-2	17:12	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	25:24	2:49
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	24:58	1:23
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	21:44	0:41
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	14:12	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	0	6	2	-1	13:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	27	23	4	.852	58:51	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Holmstrom	RW	2	1	3	3	0	1	+2	0	15:11	0:00
J. Pageau	C	0	2	2	1	2	1	+2	2	15:38	0:00
A. Lee	LW	1	1	2	2	1	4	+3	2	15:13	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	0	1	1	1	5	4	+1	0	18:22	0:00
B. Horvat	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	18:18	0:00
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	18:11	0:00
M. Barzal	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	19:15	0:00
K. Palmieri	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:06	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:36	0:00
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:29	0:00
K. MacLean	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	8:05	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	7:31	0:00
A. Romanov	D	1	0	1	5	6	4	+1	0	25:12	0:00
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+2	0	22:11	0:00
S. Perunovich	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+2	0	18:52	0:00
A. Pelech	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	+2	0	24:17	0:00
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:07	0:00
I. George	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	12:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	32	30	2	.938	60:00	Win
J. Skarek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrock Nelson COL Faces NYI, his team until Mar 20251 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 2.9, NYI 2.8	COL 2, NYI 5
Total goals	5.7	7
Shots on goal	COL 28.3, NYI 27.9	COL 32, NYI 28
Win chance	COL 52%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	7	1.35	1	37%	0
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	3	0.83	1	33%	1
COL C. Makar	3.0	3	1.05	0	22%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.7	2	0.69	2	30%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.7	3	0.91	0	24%	0
NYI B. Nelson	2.6	1	0.84	1	34%	0
COL M. Necas	2.5	2	0.80	2	24%	0
COL D. Toews	2.2	0	0.61	0	11%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.0	3	0.66	1	29%	1
NYI K. Palmieri	2.0	0	0.65	0	25%	0
COL R. Colton	1.8	1	0.43	0	21%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.8	0	0.47	1	9%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.7	2	0.77	0	19%	0
COL M. Wood	1.6	3	0.24	0	11%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.6	1	0.56	0	24%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	2	0.34	1	7%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.5	3	0.35	0	5%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.5	1	0.47	2	17%	0
COL J. Drury	1.5	3	0.28	1	10%	1
NYI M. Tsyplakov	1.4	1	0.43	0	16%	0
COL S. Girard	1.4	1	0.37	0	5%	0
NYI A. Romanov	1.4	5	0.33	1	5%	1
COL L. O'Connor	1.3	0	0.32	0	13%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	0	0.17	0	4%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.2	1	0.55	0	16%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.1	3	0.44	3	19%	2
COL P. Kelly	1.1	2	0.22	0	10%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	1	0.25	1	11%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	0	0.23	0	11%	0
COL C. Haan	1.0	1	0.17	0	3%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	0.9	2	0.16	0	9%	0
NYI I. George	0.8	0	0.16	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	0	0.16	0	8%	0
COL J. Parssinen	0.7	1	0.26	0	11%	0
NYI S. Perunovich	0.5	2	0.27	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.