Game Recap: COL 3, NYI 6, December 4, 2025

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Game Recap

COL3

FinalThu, Dec 4, 2025Every game that night

NYI6

NYI beat COL 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.27 expected goals to 3.26. M. Barzal led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). A. Duclair had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. I. Sorokin stopped 35 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	0	2	1	3
NYI	2	3	1	6

1st 5:56NYIK. MacLean0.33 xG
1st 18:20NYIA. Lee0.15 xG
2nd 6:58NYIB. Horvat0.23 xG
2nd 7:59NYIA. Pelech0.02 xG
2nd 8:39COLV. Nichushkin0.09 xG
2nd 10:04COLM. Necas0.27 xG
2nd 18:46NYIM. BarzalPP0.15 xG
3rd 1:27COLA. Lehkonen0.07 xG
3rd 18:45NYIC. CizikasEN0.34 xG

Team Stats

COLNYI

38Shots on goal42

3.26Expected goals4.27

74Shot attempts64

345v5 shots on goal30

0/3Power play1/4

26Hits18

12Blocked shots20

8Penalty minutes6

16Giveaways10

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.26 xGNYI 4.27 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL38 on goal, 3 scored

NYI41 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	1	1	2	3	4	1	0	2	20:04	3:51
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	2	19:31	3:45
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	-2	0	18:42	0:57
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	0	1	3	2	0	-1	0	16:23	0:41
V. Olofsson	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:49	2:38
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	22:10	3:37
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	16:06	3:16
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:09	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:07	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	-2	0	12:34	0:46
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	8:56	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	4:34	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	2	1	2	-2	2	23:09	3:17
B. Burns	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	18:25	0:02
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	4	2	0	0	0	16:53	0:29
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	21:17	0:43
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	4	5	0	0	2	18:02	0:02
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	17:58	0:31

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	41	36	5	.878	57:37	Loss
T. Miner	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Barzal	C	1	2	3	4	2	0	+1	2	20:40	3:49
B. Horvat	C	1	1	2	6	0	4	0	0	19:29	3:48
A. Lee	LW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+1	0	17:40	1:16
M. Shabanov	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	16:19	3:51
K. MacLean	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	12:05	0:00
C. Cizikas	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	+2	0	11:20	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	+1	0	9:32	0:00
S. Holmstrom	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:25	1:12
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	0	3	3	1	+1	0	15:03	0:59
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	13:54	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	8	0	1	-1	0	13:36	3:51
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:16	1:16
R. Pulock	D	0	2	2	2	1	5	+1	0	24:27	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+2	2	25:41	3:48
A. Pelech	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+2	0	22:20	0:17
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	17:51	1:18
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	15:10	0:00
T. Mitchell	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	10:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Sorokin	38	35	3	.921	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon17:26M. Necas15:49A. Lehkonen15:10

Line 2B. Nelson15:03R. Colton11:07G. Landeskog12:30

Line 3V. Olofsson9:51J. Drury12:41V. Nichushkin13:53

Line 4P. Kelly10:15J. Kiviranta7:10Z. Bardakov4:34

Pair 1D. Toews17:55C. Makar16:44

Pair 2S. Girard16:09S. Malinski15:00

Pair 3B. Burns15:53J. Manson15:30

NYI

Line 1A. Lee16:18M. Barzal16:44M. Tsyplakov13:52

Line 2B. Horvat11:13E. Heineman12:01M. Shabanov12:28

Line 3C. Cizikas10:19K. MacLean12:05M. Gatcomb9:32

Line 4S. Holmstrom10:41C. Ritchie10:14A. Duclair9:45

Pair 1R. Pulock20:34M. Schaefer19:17

Pair 2A. Pelech17:23T. DeAngelo16:27

Pair 3S. Mayfield13:35T. Mitchell10:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrock Nelson COL Faces NYI, his team until Mar 20251 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.3, NYI 2.7	COL 3, NYI 6
Total goals	6.0	9
Shots on goal	COL 30.5, NYI 28.1	COL 38, NYI 42
Win chance	COL 59%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	6	1.34	0	38%	0
NYI B. Horvat	3.2	6	0.77	2	34%	1
NYI M. Barzal	2.8	4	0.85	3	25%	1
COL C. Makar	2.8	2	0.99	1	22%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.6	4	0.52	2	25%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.4	3	0.79	1	31%	1
COL M. Necas	2.4	3	0.94	2	28%	1
NYI M. Schaefer	2.4	3	0.56	1	13%	0
COL R. Colton	2.2	1	0.51	0	21%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.2	3	0.66	1	29%	1
COL G. Landeskog	2.1	2	0.75	0	28%	0
COL B. Nelson	1.9	1	0.67	1	29%	0
COL B. Burns	1.8	2	0.36	1	8%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.8	0	0.43	1	20%	0
NYI E. Heineman	1.7	3	0.46	0	23%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.6	4	0.30	1	6%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.6	2	0.47	1	16%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.6	1	0.38	0	7%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.5	0	0.26	0	13%	0
COL J. Drury	1.5	0	0.35	0	13%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.4	2	0.24	1	3%	1
COL D. Toews	1.4	3	0.45	0	8%	0
COL J. Manson	1.4	4	0.27	0	6%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	1	0.28	0	11%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	1	0.42	0	19%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.2	0	0.23	1	15%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.2	2	0.27	2	4%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.1	8	0.28	0	16%	0
COL S. Girard	1.0	1	0.25	0	4%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.9	2	0.20	0	10%	0
NYI M. Tsyplakov	0.9	1	0.20	0	8%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	0.8	1	0.17	1	7%	1
NYI S. Mayfield	0.8	1	0.14	0	3%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.8	0	0.26	0	8%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.7	3	0.15	1	7%	1

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.