Game Recap: COL 3, NYR 2 (OT), December 6, 2025

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Game Recap

COL3

Final/OTSat, Dec 6, 2025Every game that night

NYR2

COL beat NYR 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.90 expected goals to 1.79. COL outshot NYR 42 to 27. M. Necas led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). G. Landeskog had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. M. Blackwood stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
COL	0	1	1	1	3
NYR	0	0	2	0	2

2nd 7:06COLP. Kelly0.07 xG
3rd 4:23NYRC. Sheary0.16 xG
3rd 15:26COLN. MacKinnon0.26 xG
3rd 19:18NYRA. Panarin0.04 xG
OT 2:46COLN. MacKinnon0.18 xG

Team Stats

COLNYR

42Shots on goal27

3.90Expected goals1.79

72Shot attempts61

375v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play0/2

21Hits32

13Blocked shots18

4Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways20

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.90 xGNYR 1.79 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL42 on goal, 3 scored

NYR27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	0	3	3	3	0	1	+2	0	22:12	3:38
N. MacKinnon	C	2	0	2	7	1	0	+3	0	24:56	3:38
P. Kelly	C	1	0	1	3	2	1	+1	0	10:20	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	22:43	3:06
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	18:09	0:22
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	18:02	0:22
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	0	15:16	3:38
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:14	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	12:22	0:54
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:05	0:22
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	10:37	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:26	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	7	0	2	-1	2	27:40	2:09
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	1	5	2	+1	0	17:00	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	14:54	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	26:17	1:44
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	19:33	0:07
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	13:32	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	27	25	2	.926	62:46	Win
T. Miner	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	3	5	0	+1	0	23:38	2:38
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	0	5	1	0	0	23:35	2:39
A. Panarin	LW	1	0	1	6	1	1	+1	0	22:12	2:40
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	1	5	0	+1	0	21:57	2:33
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	17:19	1:11
C. Sheary	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	15:42	1:27
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	21:25	2:32
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	13:28	1:18
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:46	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	8:20	1:21
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:54	0:03
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:09	0:01
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	-1	0	24:17	0:16
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	22:40	0:10
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	18:54	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	+1	0	16:05	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	2	15:56	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:25	1:11

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	42	39	3	.929	61:22	OT loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1A. Lehkonen18:14N. MacKinnon19:04M. Necas17:57

Line 2B. Nelson13:28G. Landeskog11:38R. Colton11:28

Line 3V. Olofsson10:43J. Drury11:34V. Nichushkin14:29

Line 4J. Kiviranta8:26P. Kelly8:10Z. Bardakov6:26

Pair 1D. Toews20:27C. Makar21:31

Pair 2B. Burns17:59J. Manson15:33

Pair 3S. Girard12:23S. Malinski13:30

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck16:59J. Miller17:06C. Sheary13:45

Line 2M. Zibanejad14:52A. Panarin17:18A. Lafrenière14:44

Line 3W. Cuylle14:35N. Laba11:02B. Berard10:46

Line 4S. Carrick7:51J. Brodzinski6:59T. Raddysh6:08

Pair 1V. Gavrikov21:18B. Schneider20:32

Pair 2C. Soucy14:57W. Borgen15:46

Pair 3S. Morrow13:51M. Robertson14:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.3, NYR 2.8	COL 3, NYR 2
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	COL 32.0, NYR 26.2	COL 42, NYR 27
Win chance	COL 59%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	7	1.33	2	37%	2
NYR A. Panarin	2.8	6	1.07	1	33%	1
COL C. Makar	2.8	7	0.95	1	22%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	1	0.76	1	27%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.5	2	0.78	0	30%	0
COL M. Necas	2.4	3	0.94	3	27%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	0	0.77	1	27%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.2	2	0.63	0	27%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.2	7	0.74	0	27%	0
COL R. Colton	2.2	4	0.48	0	19%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	3	0.91	1	29%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.1	0	0.52	0	22%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.0	2	0.67	0	27%	0
COL B. Burns	1.8	3	0.35	0	8%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.8	3	0.49	1	21%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.8	0	0.44	0	19%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.7	0	0.29	1	6%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.6	0	0.23	0	13%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.5	1	0.33	0	15%	0
COL J. Drury	1.5	0	0.34	0	12%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	1	0.26	1	7%	0
COL D. Toews	1.4	0	0.43	0	9%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.4	3	0.27	1	11%	1
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	2	0.34	0	7%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.3	3	0.31	1	12%	1
NYR N. Laba	1.2	1	0.29	0	14%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.1	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	1	0.23	0	5%	0
COL S. Girard	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	0	0.20	0	5%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	0	0.19	0	6%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.9	0	0.19	0	9%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.9	3	0.11	0	4%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.8	1	0.16	0	7%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.7	1	0.22	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.