Game Recap: COL 3, SEA 2, October 22, 2024

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Game Recap

COL3

FinalTue, Oct 22, 2024Every game that night

SEA2

COL beat SEA 3-2, with the chances close: 2.71 expected goals to 2.93. J. Kiviranta led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Kiviranta had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. J. Annunen stopped 25 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	1	2	0	3
SEA	0	1	1	2

1st 18:32COLJ. Kiviranta0.05 xG
2nd 11:57SEAJ. McCann0.14 xG
2nd 14:56COLJ. Kiviranta0.04 xG
2nd 19:52COLN. MacKinnonPP0.11 xG
3rd 19:55SEAR. EvansPP0.11 xG

Team Stats

COLSEA

28Shots on goal27

2.71Expected goals2.93

60Shot attempts73

245v5 shots on goal20

1/3Power play1/1

17Hits18

23Blocked shots17

2Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways21

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.71 xGSEA 2.93 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL28 on goal, 3 scored

SEA27 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Kiviranta	LW	2	0	2	4	0	1	+2	2	14:51	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	21:51	3:59
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	17:53	3:44
I. Ivan	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	11:39	0:28
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	0	22:05	4:00
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	21:04	3:59
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	4	3	1	-1	0	18:24	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0	15:18	0:00
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	+1	0	15:15	0:00
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:42	0:44
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:14	0:29
M. Stienburg	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	6:00	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	2	2	3	0	3	+1	0	23:34	3:49
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	13:38	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	23:09	0:29
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	19:05	0:39
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	4	3	1	-1	0	18:40	0:00
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	1	2	5	+1	0	17:43	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	27	25	2	.926	60:00	Win
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	15:58	1:36
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	12:52	0:19
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	12:20	0:19
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	19:04	1:36
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:36	1:36
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:28	1:36
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:03	0:19
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:56	1:36
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:51	0:19
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:39	0:19
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	12:51	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	1	6	1	0	0	9:59	0:00
R. Evans	D	1	0	1	4	2	3	0	0	22:53	0:19
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	3	2	2	-1	0	26:41	1:36
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	24:27	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	-1	2	20:05	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:05	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:05	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	28	25	3	.893	56:39	Loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJaden Schwartz COL First game back in Seattle, his team until Apr 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.4, SEA 3.1	COL 3, SEA 2
Total goals	6.5	5
Shots on goal	COL 30.2, SEA 29.0	COL 28, SEA 27
Win chance	COL 55%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.4	2	1.44	1	40%	1
COL M. Rantanen	3.0	3	1.18	0	39%	0
COL C. Makar	2.6	3	1.03	2	23%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.6	2	0.84	1	32%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.3	3	0.61	0	14%	0
COL R. Colton	2.3	3	0.61	0	26%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.1	2	0.63	0	22%	0
COL M. Wood	2.0	0	0.31	0	14%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.9	1	0.65	0	23%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.9	0	0.74	1	22%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.9	0	0.60	1	20%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	1.8	0	0.53	0	21%	0
COL D. Toews	1.8	0	0.58	0	11%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	3	0.56	0	21%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	4	0.33	0	9%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	1	0.45	1	18%	0
COL C. Ritchie	1.5	0	0.26	0	14%	0
SEA Y. Gourde	1.4	1	0.46	0	15%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.4	4	0.35	0	14%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	1	0.28	0	7%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	2	0.78	0	22%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	1.3	0	0.25	0	12%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.3	3	0.28	0	5%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.3	0	0.34	0	15%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	2	0.29	1	7%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	1	0.23	0	11%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	2	0.47	0	20%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.2	1	0.26	0	13%	0
COL S. Girard	1.2	0	0.36	0	6%	0
SEA R. Evans	1.1	4	0.32	1	5%	1
COL C. Haan	1.0	1	0.17	0	5%	0
COL I. Ivan	1.0	1	0.20	1	8%	0
SEA W. Borgen	1.0	1	0.26	0	4%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	0.8	4	0.17	2	8%	2
SEA J. Mahura	0.8	0	0.21	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.