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Game Recap
COL5
SEA3
COL beat SEA 5-3 despite fewer good chances: 4.48 expected goals to 5.81. N. MacKinnon led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). B. Nelson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. M. Blackwood stopped 35 of 38.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| SEA | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 12:19COLA. Lehkonen0.07 xG
- 2nd 3:03SEAS. Wright0.75 xG
- 2nd 5:48SEAJ. Eberle0.16 xG
- 2nd 13:29COLS. Girard0.04 xG
- 2nd 19:24SEAC. StephensonPP0.04 xG
- 3rd 2:40COLN. MacKinnon0.03 xG
- 3rd 8:25COLB. NelsonPP0.65 xG
- 3rd 19:36COLN. MacKinnonEN0.73 xG
Team Stats
COLSEA
39Shots on goal38
4.48Expected goals5.81
82Shot attempts72
265v5 shots on goal30
1/4Power play1/4
14Hits18
14Blocked shots26
16Penalty minutes16
13Giveaways18
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 4.48 xGSEA 5.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 23:30 | 5:41 |
| M. Necas | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:16 | 5:12 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:50 | 0:54 |
| G. Landeskog | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:54 | 5:04 |
| B. Nelson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:56 | 5:06 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:27 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:53 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:50 | 0:13 |
| G. Brindley | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:59 |
| V. Olofsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:12 | 0:47 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:47 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:48 | 5:48 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 4 | 18:08 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 4 | 16:44 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:24 | 0:39 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 38 | 35 | 3 | .921 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stephenson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 22:27 | 4:44 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:25 | 4:52 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 21:24 | 4:41 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:16 | 4:38 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:58 | 1:36 |
| S. Wright | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:37 | 1:39 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:26 | 1:33 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 19:50 | 0:05 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 6 | 17:24 | 1:39 |
| B. Meyers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:06 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 5:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Melanson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:11 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 4 | 25:17 | 5:01 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 23:56 | 0:13 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:02 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:11 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 11:46 | 1:31 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 38 | 34 | 4 | .895 | 58:36 | Loss |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
COL
Line 1N. MacKinnon16:15M. Necas15:27A. Lehkonen13:27
Line 2G. Landeskog13:24V. Nichushkin13:21B. Nelson12:10
Line 3R. Colton10:37G. Brindley9:40V. Olofsson9:25
Line 4P. Kelly7:51J. Drury8:21J. Kiviranta7:40
Pair 1S. Girard16:48S. Malinski16:06
SEA
Line 1J. Eberle14:57M. Beniers14:28M. Marchment14:21
Line 2C. Stephenson13:50F. Gaudreau16:49E. Tolvanen12:17
Line 4R. Winterton5:46B. Meyers6:47J. Melanson4:11
Pair 1A. Larsson19:18V. Dunn18:52
Pair 2J. Oleksiak14:38R. Evans15:44
Pair 3B. Montour9:56R. Lindgren13:43
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.5, SEA 2.6 | COL 5, SEA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | COL 31.6, SEA 26.0 | COL 39, SEA 38 |
| Win chance | COL 64% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.4 | 6 | 1.53 | 3 | 42% | 2 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.9 | 2 | 1.07 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| COL G. Landeskog | 2.4 | 5 | 0.83 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 2.4 | 1 | 1.01 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.3 | 4 | 0.76 | 1 | 30% | 1 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.3 | 1 | 0.68 | 2 | 30% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 2.2 | 7 | 0.61 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.1 | 7 | 0.78 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.0 | 4 | 0.55 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA M. Marchment | 2.0 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.9 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.9 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 4 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 1.8 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| COL V. Olofsson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL G. Brindley | 1.6 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.6 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.4 | 5 | 0.62 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 3 | 0.44 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| SEA J. Nyman | 1.3 | 3 | 0.22 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 1 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.7 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.7 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 15 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.