Game Recap: COL 5, SEA 1, March 12, 2026

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Game Recap

COL5

FinalThu, Mar 12, 2026Every game that night

SEA1

COL beat SEA 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.95 expected goals to 2.19. N. MacKinnon led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). S. Wedgewood stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	3	1	1	5
SEA	0	1	0	1

1st 3:45COLM. Necas0.15 xG
1st 12:54COLN. MacKinnon0.07 xG
1st 18:48COLN. RoyPP0.03 xG
2nd 13:36SEAR. EvansSH0.15 xG
2nd 17:11COLN. Kadri0.05 xG
3rd 12:41COLJ. Kiviranta0.12 xG

Team Stats

COLSEA

26Shots on goal29

2.95Expected goals2.19

57Shot attempts64

215v5 shots on goal22

1/3Power play0/2

17Hits16

19Blocked shots10

4Penalty minutes6

21Giveaways16

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 2.95 xGSEA 2.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL26 on goal, 5 scored

SEA27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	3	4	4	0	0	+3	0	20:58	3:05
M. Necas	C	1	1	2	1	1	1	+3	0	22:32	2:35
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+3	0	19:26	2:28
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	19:18	3:06
N. Roy	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	16:56	2:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	14:20	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:11	0:00
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	18:19	1:31
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	15:36	0:00
G. Brindley	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	9:20	1:32
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	8:04	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	2	19:41	1:38
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	2	2	2	+2	0	19:09	0:31
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	2	1	3	+1	0	15:48	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	21:01	3:11
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+2	0	18:05	0:31
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	14:45	0:57
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	9:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	17:27	2:30
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	4	17:39	1:48
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	17:19	2:14
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:21	1:30
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:00	2:09
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	15:58	0:00
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	15:49	2:16
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:44	1:44
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:28	1:47
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	13:12	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:53	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	9:31	0:00
R. Evans	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:30	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	21:31	1:44
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	2	21:14	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	0	20:26	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	19:19	2:18
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	17:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	15	12	3	.800	20:00	Loss
P. Grubauer	11	9	2	.818	39:43

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon17:53M. Necas19:57N. Kadri16:58

Line 2B. Nelson14:13V. Nichushkin14:48J. Kiviranta12:45

Line 3J. Drury14:35P. Kelly12:11N. Roy13:41

Line 4G. Brindley7:48Z. Bardakov8:04

Pair 1C. Makar15:21D. Toews16:37

Pair 2B. Kulak15:47S. Malinski17:47

Pair 3B. Burns12:49J. Manson14:45

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle15:34M. Beniers14:48J. McCann13:16

Line 2S. Wright12:41B. Catton14:34K. Kakko13:00

Line 3C. Stephenson12:45F. Gaudreau13:36E. Tolvanen11:40

Line 4B. Meyers11:04R. Winterton10:36J. Melanson9:31

Pair 1A. Larsson19:22V. Dunn17:01

Pair 2B. Montour18:43R. Lindgren17:01

Pair 3J. Oleksiak15:21R. Evans14:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.7, SEA 2.8	COL 5, SEA 1
Total goals	6.5	6
Shots on goal	COL 33.0, SEA 25.1	COL 26, SEA 29
Win chance	COL 64%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.2	4	1.41	4	40%	1
COL N. Kadri	3.0	2	0.79	1	28%	1
COL M. Necas	3.0	1	1.15	2	33%	1
COL C. Makar	2.8	2	1.07	0	24%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.7	4	0.94	1	36%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.5	2	0.69	0	28%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.4	2	0.47	0	13%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.2	0	0.67	0	28%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.0	3	0.58	0	22%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.9	2	0.34	1	5%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.9	2	0.44	0	20%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.9	1	0.52	0	22%	0
COL D. Toews	1.8	1	0.49	2	10%	0
COL B. Burns	1.8	1	0.38	0	9%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.7	4	0.51	0	10%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	2	0.34	1	7%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.4	0	0.42	0	19%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	1	0.33	1	14%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.3	0	0.41	0	16%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.3	2	0.24	0	7%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.2	3	0.23	0	12%	0
COL J. Drury	1.2	0	0.32	0	12%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.2	1	0.24	0	12%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	2	0.58	1	19%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	1	0.33	0	14%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.1	1	0.21	0	4%	0
COL N. Blankenburg	1.1	0	0.28	0	6%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	1	0.23	1	11%	1
COL N. Roy	1.0	2	0.33	1	13%	1
SEA A. Larsson	1.0	2	0.26	0	6%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.0	1	0.21	0	10%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.9	0	0.18	0	9%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.6	1	0.21	1	5%	1
COL Z. Bardakov	0.6	1	0.18	0	5%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.6	2	0.17	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.