COL beat SJS 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.99 expected goals to 1.91. C. Makar led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Ceci had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Annunen stopped 25 of 26.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 2.99 xGSJS 1.91 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:00 | 3:56 |
| R. Colton | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 3:57 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:22 | 4:25 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 3:52 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 16:26 | 0:00 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:22 | 1:51 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 12:12 | 0:00 |
| C. Ritchie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:49 | 1:18 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:47 | 1:44 |
| M. Stienburg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:19 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 25:41 | 4:38 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:32 | 1:49 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 6 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| J. Ludvig | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:01 | 0:00 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:05 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Annunen | 26 | 25 | 1 | .962 | 60:00 | Win |
| A. Georgiev | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 21:14 | 4:41 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:15 | 4:41 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:59 | 4:20 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:12 | 4:46 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:05 | 2:27 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:32 | 0:00 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:43 | 2:41 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:22 | 2:20 |
| D. Gushchin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 2:27 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:52 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 22:00 | 0:02 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:46 | 5:01 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 16:59 | 0:08 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:20 | 2:06 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 14:41 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Vanecek | 21 | 18 | 3 | .857 | 57:36 | Loss |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 4.4, SJS 2.6 | COL 4, SJS 1 |
| Total goals | 7.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | COL 36.6, SJS 26.2 | COL 22, SJS 26 |
| Win chance | COL 73% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 5.1 | 3 | 1.89 | 2 | 47% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 3.5 | 1 | 1.55 | 1 | 46% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.3 | 2 | 1.40 | 3 | 27% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.6 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 30% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.5 | 4 | 0.75 | 2 | 29% | 2 |
| COL M. Wood | 2.3 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 2.2 | 1 | 0.98 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.1 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 2.0 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 1.9 | 3 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL C. Ritchie | 1.9 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.8 | 3 | 0.67 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| SJS D. Gushchin | 1.7 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.6 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| COL N. Kovalenko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.5 | 2 | 0.41 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.5 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL C. Haan | 1.2 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.1 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 1.1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.0 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| COL J. Ludvig | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.