COL beat SJS 4-2, with the chances close: 2.96 expected goals to 2.96. J. Kiviranta led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). W. Smith had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. M. Blackwood stopped 32 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| SJS | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 3:40COLV. NichushkinPP0.12 xG
- 2nd 4:26SJSC. Grundstrom0.60 xG
- 2nd 9:29SJSW. Eklund0.13 xG
- 3rd 8:26COLM. RantanenPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 13:06COLJ. Kiviranta0.12 xG
- 3rd 15:58COLJ. Kiviranta0.15 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 2.96 xGSJS 2.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 23:18 | 4:05 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:06 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 23:14 | 4:17 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 22:33 | 0:46 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:01 | 2:21 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 0:00 |
| C. Mittelstadt | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 2:30 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 4:11 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| I. Ivan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:59 | 0:49 |
| C. Wagner | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5:06 | 0:00 |
| G. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4:47 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 30:57 | 4:11 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 26:41 | 0:49 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:02 | 0:55 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:15 | 0:00 |
| C. de Haan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:59 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 59:43 | Win |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:01 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:50 | 2:09 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 7:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 25:39 | 5:52 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:19 | 6:10 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:40 | 2:08 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:38 | 5:52 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:06 | 6:14 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:56 | 1:40 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:41 | 0:00 |
| W. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:34 | 1:39 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:39 | 0:00 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:25 | 0:01 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:14 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 22:54 | 6:32 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:01 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 14:14 | 1:27 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 31 | 27 | 4 | .871 | 56:57 | Loss |
| Y. Askarov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.9, SJS 2.8 | COL 4, SJS 2 |
| Total goals | 6.7 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | COL 33.2, SJS 27.3 | COL 31, SJS 34 |
| Win chance | COL 65% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.3 | 3 | 1.67 | 2 | 44% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.3 | 3 | 1.29 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| COL M. Rantanen | 3.0 | 3 | 1.42 | 1 | 43% | 1 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.0 | 3 | 0.90 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.6 | 5 | 0.96 | 1 | 37% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.6 | 2 | 0.69 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.5 | 1 | 0.92 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 2.3 | 2 | 0.66 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.2 | 3 | 0.88 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 2.1 | 3 | 0.73 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.0 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.0 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.8 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL C. Mittelstadt | 1.6 | 0 | 0.75 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.5 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.4 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.3 | 5 | 0.45 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 4 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.1 | 3 | 0.23 | 2 | 11% | 2 |
| COL C. Haan | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.0 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 0.9 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 0.9 | 3 | 0.20 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| COL I. Ivan | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL C. Wagner | 0.9 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL G. Smith | 0.8 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.6 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.