Game Recap: COL 2, SJS 3 (OT), November 1, 2025

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Game Recap

COL2

Final/OTSat, Nov 1, 2025Every game that night

SJS3

SJS beat COL 3-2 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 1.94 expected goals to 3.52. COL outshot SJS 38 to 23. P. Kurashev led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). P. Kurashev had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. Y. Askarov stopped 37 of 38.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
COL	1	1	0	0	2
SJS	1	1	0	1	3

1st 0:30COLM. Necas0.04 xG
1st 18:21SJSM. Celebrini0.08 xG
2nd 4:07SJSP. Kurashev0.14 xG
2nd 9:10COLN. MacKinnon0.09 xG
OT 1:48SJSP. Kurashev0.07 xG

Team Stats

COLSJS

38Shots on goal23

3.52Expected goals1.94

74Shot attempts45

345v5 shots on goal16

0/2Power play0/3

13Hits16

14Blocked shots10

6Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways17

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.52 xGSJS 1.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL39 on goal, 2 scored

SJS23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	4	1	0	-1	0	22:33	2:50
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0	22:17	2:51
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	21:01	1:11
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	17:32	2:48
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	19:05	1:50
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:20	0:00
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	13:38	2:10
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	12:50	0:50
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	12:29	1:11
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	11:14	0:00
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:59	0:00
T. Makar	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	6:07	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	-2	0	25:22	3:07
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	-1	2	23:39	0:59
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	24:11	0:13
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	3	4	2	+1	0	20:57	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	15:04	0:00
I. Solovyov	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	+1	2	9:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	23	20	3	.870	61:48	OT loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kurashev	C	2	0	2	5	2	0	+1	0	20:20	2:24
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	6	1	1	+1	2	22:44	3:36
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	21:05	2:20
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	19:31	3:36
T. Dellandrea	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	9:50	0:00
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	20:56	3:34
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:45	3:39
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:56	2:20
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:55	0:00
M. Misa	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	10:11	1:44
C. Graf	RW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	9:40	0:00
P. Giles	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	8:06	0:01
J. Klingberg	D	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	2	23:14	3:36
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	20:53	0:04
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	0	27:21	2:23
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	+2	0	23:28	0:02
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:11	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	7:18	0:41

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	38	37	2	.974	61:48	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon17:52M. Necas18:57A. Lehkonen19:23

Line 2B. Nelson14:29V. Nichushkin11:40R. Colton12:00

Line 3V. Olofsson11:28J. Drury11:35G. Landeskog11:18

Line 4P. Kelly8:00Z. Bardakov6:59T. Makar6:07

Pair 1D. Toews19:42C. Makar17:14

Pair 2B. Burns20:49J. Manson19:09

Pair 3I. Solovyov9:06S. Malinski14:12

SJS

Line 1W. Smith16:18M. Celebrini18:01T. Toffoli15:55

Line 2A. Wennberg16:08P. Kurashev16:31W. Eklund15:12

Line 3C. Graf8:36M. Misa8:27J. Skinner8:36

Line 4P. Giles8:05T. Dellandrea8:46B. Goodrow9:13

Pair 1J. Klingberg18:54M. Ferraro21:23

Pair 2V. Desharnais12:00S. Mukhamadullin19:17

Pair 3D. Orlov22:42T. Liljegren5:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMackenzie Blackwood COL Faces SJS, his team until Dec 202420 saves on 23

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.9, SJS 2.7	COL 2, SJS 3
Total goals	6.7	5
Shots on goal	COL 32.5, SJS 25.2	COL 38, SJS 23
Win chance	COL 68%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.3	4	1.60	1	42%	1
COL C. Makar	3.2	0	1.31	1	29%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.1	6	0.92	1	29%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.9	3	0.72	1	32%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.7	3	0.90	1	37%	0
COL M. Necas	2.7	4	1.09	1	32%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.3	2	0.78	1	31%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.3	0	0.85	0	34%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.2	0	0.73	0	22%	0
COL V. Olofsson	2.1	4	0.62	0	25%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.1	0	0.75	0	25%	0
COL B. Burns	2.0	3	0.44	0	10%	0
SJS J. Skinner	2.0	0	0.52	0	24%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.9	1	0.70	0	26%	0
COL R. Colton	1.7	3	0.45	0	19%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	0	0.63	1	12%	0
COL J. Manson	1.7	3	0.37	0	9%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.7	1	0.41	0	14%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.6	5	0.29	0	7%	0
SJS P. Kurashev	1.5	5	0.50	2	18%	2
COL J. Drury	1.5	1	0.36	0	13%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.5	3	0.45	0	8%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.4	2	0.44	1	8%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.3	0	0.33	0	7%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	1	0.48	1	16%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.2	4	0.26	0	11%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.0	0	0.27	0	12%	0
SJS P. Giles	1.0	2	0.14	0	10%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	0	0.22	0	5%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.0	0	0.29	1	4%	0
COL I. Solovyov	0.9	0	0.17	0	3%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	0	0.20	1	7%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	0	0.16	0	9%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.7	1	0.23	0	8%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.5	0	0.10	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.