Game Recap: COL 1, STL 3, February 23, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

COL1

FinalSun, Feb 23, 2025Every game that night

STL3

STL beat COL 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.92 expected goals to 1.90. J. Faulk led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Binnington stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	1	0	0	1
STL	0	3	0	3

1st 7:49COLD. Toews0.07 xG
2nd 10:45STLB. Schenn0.32 xG
2nd 14:13STLC. Parayko0.46 xG
2nd 19:50STLD. Holloway0.11 xG

Team Stats

COLSTL

29Shots on goal25

1.90Expected goals2.92

60Shot attempts50

235v5 shots on goal23

0/1Power play0/0

18Hits20

11Blocked shots15

7Penalty minutes9

7Giveaways11

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 1.90 xGSTL 2.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL27 on goal, 1 scored

STL24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:37	1:37
M. Necas	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:03	1:35
N. MacKinnon	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	20:48	1:39
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	18:49	0:25
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:44	1:36
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	15:16	0:21
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	6	0	-2	0	13:25	0:24
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	12:14	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:10	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:01	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10:16	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5	7:56	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	4	1	2	-1	0	23:45	1:34
D. Toews	D	1	0	1	4	0	1	-2	0	23:18	0:26
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	22:21	0:23
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	21:17	0:00
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	14:05	0:00
O. Kylington	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	25	22	3	.880	57:24	Loss
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Kyrou	RW	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	15:14	0:00
R. Thomas	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	19:13	0:00
D. Holloway	LW	1	0	1	3	3	0	+2	0	19:09	0:00
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	2	17:42	0:00
B. Schenn	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	+2	0	16:31	0:00
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:09	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	7	14:48	0:00
R. Faksa	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:24	0:00
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:39	0:00
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:23	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:01	0:00
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	5:32	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	2	2	2	0	0	+2	0	21:14	0:00
C. Parayko	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	0	21:44	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	20:05	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+2	0	19:55	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:42	0:00
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	0	18:35	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.1, STL 2.8	COL 1, STL 3
Total goals	5.8	4
Shots on goal	COL 28.6, STL 26.0	COL 29, STL 25
Win chance	COL 54%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.1	3	1.35	0	37%	0
COL M. Necas	3.1	0	0.95	0	29%	0
COL C. Makar	3.1	4	1.02	1	25%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.8	1	0.82	2	33%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.4	1	0.76	1	33%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.2	3	0.60	1	22%	1
STL R. Thomas	2.2	0	0.95	1	26%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.1	3	0.82	1	28%	0
COL D. Toews	2.0	4	0.57	1	12%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.8	2	0.62	1	22%	1
STL C. Parayko	1.7	3	0.38	1	10%	1
COL R. Colton	1.6	2	0.37	0	18%	0
COL M. Wood	1.6	3	0.23	0	11%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.6	2	0.42	2	7%	0
COL J. Drury	1.6	1	0.29	0	11%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.5	2	0.40	0	21%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.4	1	0.37	0	14%	0
COL J. Drouin	1.3	1	0.61	0	16%	0
COL S. Girard	1.3	1	0.33	0	6%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	1	0.19	0	6%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.2	2	0.30	0	7%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.2	0	0.28	0	12%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	1	0.44	0	8%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.2	0	0.28	0	10%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	2	0.22	0	10%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.1	2	0.47	0	14%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.1	2	0.23	0	11%	0
COL O. Kylington	1.1	0	0.22	0	7%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.0	0	0.25	0	10%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.0	1	0.32	0	12%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.0	0	0.21	0	11%	0
STL N. Walker	0.9	0	0.26	0	13%	0
STL N. Leddy	0.9	1	0.28	0	3%	0
COL C. Haan	0.9	3	0.15	0	3%	0
COL J. Parssinen	0.7	1	0.25	0	10%	0
STL R. Suter	0.7	1	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.