STL beat COL 5-4 despite fewer good chances: 2.46 expected goals to 3.30. COL outshot STL 39 to 22. R. Thomas led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). Z. Bolduc had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Binnington stopped 35 of 39.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
COL 3.30 xGSTL 2.46 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 25:29 | 4:19 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:37 | 4:10 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:31 | 3:15 |
| R. Colton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 13:30 | 1:43 |
| M. Wood | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:48 | 0:00 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 9:46 | 0:00 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 24:26 | 4:18 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 22:01 | 2:45 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:05 | 1:42 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| P. Kelly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 9:17 | 0:00 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:55 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 27:32 | 3:50 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:14 | 2:17 |
| S. Malinski | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:32 | 1:41 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| K. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:50 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 21 | 17 | 4 | .810 | 57:22 | Loss |
| S. Wedgewood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 21:50 | 1:50 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:24 | 1:53 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:29 | 1:51 |
| J. Snuggerud | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:38 | 1:54 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 1:59 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:56 | 0:00 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:29 | 1:58 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:23 | 2:01 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:05 | 1:31 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:44 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:15 | 1:40 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 25:13 | 2:12 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 23:10 | 0:31 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:00 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 0:00 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 39 | 35 | 4 | .897 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL 3.2, STL 3.0 | COL 4, STL 5 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | COL 27.8, STL 26.0 | COL 39, STL 22 |
| Win chance | COL 52% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 3.7 | 7 | 1.25 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| COL C. Makar | 2.8 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.7 | 1 | 0.78 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.6 | 6 | 0.77 | 0 | 33% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.1 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 2 | 0.75 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.0 | 1 | 0.99 | 4 | 25% | 1 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.8 | 6 | 0.50 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 1.8 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.8 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 1.7 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.6 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.5 | 4 | 0.36 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.5 | 2 | 0.50 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| COL S. Malinski | 1.4 | 1 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| COL M. Wood | 1.4 | 2 | 0.21 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.1 | 0 | 0.44 | 3 | 8% | 0 |
| COL C. Coyle | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL E. Johnson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.0 | 3 | 0.24 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| COL J. Vesey | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL K. Middleton | 1.0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.