Game Recap: COL 3, STL 1, April 7, 2026

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Game Recap

COL3

FinalTue, Apr 7, 2026Every game that night

STL1

COL beat STL 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.19 expected goals to 2.23. COL outshot STL 37 to 19. V. Nichushkin led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). V. Nichushkin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. S. Wedgewood stopped 18 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
COL	2	1	0	3
STL	0	1	0	1

1st 16:11COLV. Nichushkin0.09 xG
1st 19:32COLM. Necas0.12 xG
2nd 1:40COLV. NichushkinSH0.12 xG
2nd 15:38STLR. Thomas0.18 xG

Team Stats

COLSTL

37Shots on goal19

3.19Expected goals2.23

73Shot attempts51

355v5 shots on goal12

0/1Power play0/3

11Hits22

16Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes2

11Giveaways19

2Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

COL 3.19 xGSTL 2.23 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

COL37 on goal, 3 scored

STL19 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Nichushkin	RW	2	0	2	6	1	2	+2	0	15:45	0:00
M. Necas	C	1	0	1	4	1	1	+1	0	21:21	0:53
N. MacKinnon	C	0	1	1	0	3	1	+1	0	21:08	0:53
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	20:11	0:00
B. Nelson	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	0	19:13	0:53
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	15:16	0:53
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:21	0:00
N. Roy	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:48	0:00
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	10:54	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:35	0:00
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	9:25	0:00
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	6:09	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+2	2	23:44	0:53
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	5	0	1	+1	2	19:34	0:00
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	22:40	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	+1	0	21:15	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	19:14	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	13:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Wedgewood	19	18	1	.947	60:00	Win
M. Blackwood	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	24:04	3:20
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	21:38	3:20
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	24:07	3:21
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	16:47	1:16
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	16:20	3:02
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	15:43	1:32
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:53	1:27
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	14:35	1:33
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:16	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:47	0:17
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	8:24	0:00
J. Finley	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:44	0:00
T. Lindstein	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	15:59	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	3	1	3	-1	0	25:12	3:34
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	20:51	0:17
L. Mailloux	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-2	2	20:04	1:09
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:47	0:17
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	37	34	3	.919	55:51	Loss
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

COL

Line 1N. MacKinnon16:50M. Necas17:31A. Lehkonen15:49

Line 2B. Nelson14:13V. Nichushkin11:57R. Colton10:54

Line 3G. Landeskog12:47N. Roy11:48N. Kadri6:09

Line 4J. Drury12:03P. Kelly8:21L. O'Connor7:43

Pair 1D. Toews18:34S. Malinski17:18

Pair 2J. Manson15:44B. Kulak18:49

Pair 3B. Burns14:53N. Blankenburg13:27

STL

Line 1D. Holloway17:10R. Thomas16:59J. Snuggerud15:42

Line 2J. Drouin12:35J. Kyrou12:06D. Dvorsky9:30

Line 3J. Berggren12:58P. Suter12:44J. Neighbours10:33

Line 4P. Buchnevich11:45A. Toropchenko7:46J. Finley7:23

Pair 1P. Broberg18:13L. Mailloux15:49

Pair 2C. Parayko18:26T. Lindstein15:14

Pair 3C. Fowler15:59T. Tucker13:58

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	COL 3.4, STL 2.8	COL 3, STL 1
Total goals	6.2	4
Shots on goal	COL 30.1, STL 24.6	COL 37, STL 19
Win chance	COL 59%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	0	1.38	1	40%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.7	2	0.79	0	28%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	2.5	2	0.68	1	23%	0
COL M. Necas	2.5	4	1.04	1	31%	1
COL N. Kadri	2.4	0	0.68	0	26%	0
COL B. Nelson	2.3	2	0.79	1	33%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.2	2	0.57	0	25%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.1	5	0.45	1	9%	0
COL G. Landeskog	1.9	3	0.61	0	24%	0
COL B. Burns	1.8	3	0.36	0	9%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	1.8	6	0.56	2	25%	2
STL R. Thomas	1.7	1	0.93	1	25%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	1.7	1	0.52	1	23%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.7	1	0.60	0	23%	0
COL D. Toews	1.6	2	0.51	1	10%	0
COL J. Manson	1.6	3	0.35	0	7%	0
COL R. Colton	1.5	2	0.30	0	14%	0
STL P. Suter	1.4	1	0.38	0	17%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.4	0	0.31	0	7%	0
STL L. Mailloux	1.3	3	0.26	0	7%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.2	3	0.21	0	4%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.2	0	0.26	0	14%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.2	2	0.49	0	21%	0
STL J. Berggren	1.2	0	0.37	0	16%	0
STL J. Drouin	1.1	1	0.41	0	12%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.1	3	0.43	0	9%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	1	0.31	0	14%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.0	1	0.18	0	9%	0
COL J. Drury	1.0	0	0.28	0	10%	0
COL N. Roy	1.0	1	0.32	0	13%	0
STL T. Lindstein	0.9	0	0.16	1	4%	0
STL C. Fowler	0.9	0	0.37	0	5%	0
COL L. O'Connor	0.9	0	0.24	0	10%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.7	0	0.17	0	4%	0
COL N. Blankenburg	0.7	1	0.18	0	4%	0
STL J. Finley	0.7	0	0.15	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.